Monday, May 27, 2024

Post-electoral judicialization, a possibility?

 Post-electoral judicialization, a possibility?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero




Although the most radicalized sectors of the PRIANRD consider that the true electoral processes will begin with the judicialization of the political process starting on June 3; The truth is that this situation depends on the electoral margin between the strongest options and the accidents on election day.


Contrary to the arguments of this trend, fortunately the electoral process has remained in a perspective characteristic of the political evolution of Mexico. However, the negative typologies of this process that closes next week have not been more serious than other presidential successions. This is good news for the ailing, imperfect democracy in our republic. The accusations that are now leveled against López Obrador were also previously implemented by neoliberals and, perhaps, with greater crudeness.


In any case, the ideal that the election day on June 2nd takes place calmly and in order contributes to the benefit of everyone. And, according to the surveys themselves, with everything and their divergences, everyone will get something. The country is not going to be lost after June 2nd. The authoritarian drift of the failed Mexican democracy did not begin in 2018. It should be noted that authoritarianism is particular to the entire political class in our country.


The fourth transformation cannot expose its performance with the implementation of electoral fraud. The results must be assumed mainly by the government and, with this, demonstrate that the democratic vocation, even in populist progressivism, is a latent reality. AMLO, whether he wants it or not, is unable to transcend the next six-year term. Violating the elections is a historical error of the most serious responsibility for the Fourth Transformation.


Mexican society, with so many irresolvable cleavages, does not seem to conform to an electorate that delivers absolute majorities in democratic contexts, which are still incipient. The many Mexicans demand inclusive and plural governments.


Electoral judicialization constitutes a scenario far from reality; there are few local cases where the electoral margin is narrow. Suddenly, the caution of the result and defense of the vote encourage fantastic fears. But, in most cases, Morena's advantage seems to be wide and with convincing scenarios of victory. For this reason, the ruling party should not expose itself to implementing fraud and situations conducive to electoral judicialization if the mathematical advantages are on its side.


The contentious electoral dimension constitutes an area of guarantee for democratic legality; However, in Mexico it has served to keep resentments and useless factionalism alive. An electoral process that does not give rise to protests contributes to the governability of Mexico.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

The axis of the Puebla political debate

 The axis of the Puebla political debate

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero



For some Morena Marxists, the caciquil chapulinism represented in the imposition of candidates is preferable to the right's advancement; the conservative groups are more dangerous than the caciquil fiefdoms for the Fourth Transformation to achieve its second floor. Be?


The neoliberal project, Foxism and Peñanietism tried to come to an agreement with the caciquil fiefdoms and that was how they succeeded. Manuel Camacho Solís, although he accused an excess of pragmatism in the national political class, had a practical perspective based on the experience of revolutionary nationalists in Asia; but, after the Salinist failure, he resumed it with moderation and ended up defending the pacts - at a disadvantage - with the traditional fiefdoms to balance different groups, cliques and leaders. His political strategy, both combative and centrist, was a total failure. The compact group that was imposed on the fiefdoms through the surprise strategy did not work, nor does change without rupture work.


True revolutionary transformation cannot be deceived. Constitutionalism, for example, could not take control of the country until the revolutionary Thermidor was finished. Only after the extreme radicalization of the Carrancista Grupo Sonora, the regime of the Mexican revolution was able to build institutions such as the Party, Presidentialism and Revolutionary Family that would channel the State and social justice. After its exhaustion, the Mexican political system has been intervened and at the full disposal of the United States and any other imperialism.


During the time of the Hegemonic Party, the PRI included the caciques, although it energized their circulation through a healthy political alternation and demobilization; The PRI was a caciquil, although it destroyed and controlled the caciques of many regions. The Great Chief was the president, but even the head of the Executive Branch had limited power: the six-year term. And there was no divine faculty that generated transexenality.


This was the circularity of the elites and the collaborative factionalism of the PRI until the exhaustion of the political project, as well as the social fabric. The inability of the political system to regenerate caused the chiefs and their factions to weaken the party and society. Neoliberalism and democracy were not consolidated because they lacked the strength to regulate and control chiefdom, fiefdoms and invisible power. Will the fourth transformation be the final chapter of this long transition via competitive elections?


Preferring fiefdoms to authentic disputes with the right is nothing other than rejecting the impulse for transformation and preferring gatopardismo to perpetuate the patrimonialism of Hispanic Feudalism, the Habsburg Model. What does it mean to agree with the fiefdoms? Dosage the poison of quietism, fill with the aroma of flowers in the poison of conservatism. Doesn't university Marxism have the intellectual preparation to realize that the caciques are extremely conservative?


Now, the fiefdoms represent the drug trafficking of the main global kingpin: NarcoAmérica.

Mexico became a State in Crisis since the arrival of neoliberalism and has reached the extreme. If the Fourth Transformation does not decide to promote institutional values, it will lead to the maximum risk of collapse of the political system.


Caciquismo has been the great hindrance of Ibero-American culture, the caciques are the ayatollahs of the anti-modern black revolution. They do not represent anything, neither regions, nor classes, nor identities, they are abusive and criminal personalist leaders.


The caciques were the first line of struggle that Falangism and Pinochetism had, they are the cracks and embers of fascism. They have the strength to generate civil animosity, a regional war, thanks to their clientelism and form of autonomous regional dominance. Salvador Allende was overthrown because the expectation of a successful socialist government could have radiated to the southern cone and generated a Latin American chain effect. The Pinochet dictatorship was a wedge to divide the region and weaken communist influence. In the end they got it. In any case, the left was displaced and destroyed. The left is denied in North American geopolitics, it is only a matter of time to exclude it from the political system.


The caciques are evidence of that empiricism that Manuel Camacho Solís questioned and that was causing so much damage in the country. The fiefdoms, like pillars of salt, seek to freeze time and the society they have hijacked. They represent the foundations of the most primitive authoritarianism. Supporting the Fourth Transformation in the chiefs is condemning the country to backwardness and the barbaric structure of slavery, vassalage and servitude. The alliance with the fiefdoms benefits the traditional right, which does not want time to move forward either.


Morena and her caciquil alliance have this perspective of suspending Mexican time, once again, weakening state institutionalization and centralization for the benefit of the caciques through the great electoral exchange. Again, we will be late to the story. The only thing that is institutionalized is patrimonial corruption.


The chiefs are the promoters of black revolutions to maintain the permanent backwardness of imperialist colonialism. Thus North American geopolitics is imposed on us anyway.


Andrew Paxman, returning to some assumptions of the Camachista diagnosis, proposes the chiefdom as a historical knot that limits the democratic evolution of the Mexican political system; the conflict they cause can lead to social collapse as was about to occur during the Peñanietismo. Feudalism is the new term to define this reality that was established after the failed Calderonista war, the country was put in the hands of drug trafficking and there is no way out.

The political system that the neoliberals tried to found could never defeat the fiefdoms and, later, could never summon them to a national pact for the democratic transition. In the end, the big losers were the technocrats and neoliberals. They never had the legitimizing capacity of capitalist liberal democracy and, little by little, they lost American support. The only element that controls the fiefdoms in the Mexican political system is the United States and it will continue that way.

The Fiefs expire again and system modernization comes to a prolonged halt. The Mexican political system will hardly move towards a socialist dimension, nor is prolonged party dominance in sight as in the time of the PRI. However, the fiefdoms are going to transmit power through a pragmatic canovism.

During the interventions of the candidates for the governorship of Puebla: Eduardo Rivera, for the Prianrd; Alejandro Armenta, for Morena and Fernando Morales, for Movimiento Ciudadano; All the candidates were reviled for their ties to Marinism. However, the expression is closer to the Morena candidate since, since the strange triumph of Miguel Barbosa, the Marinista operators were important for the movement of electoral structures.


According to the narrative of democratic transitions, it is not normal for Marinismo to have the possibility of resurfacing and reaching power; However, in spaces where political fiefdoms dominate municipal power and public administration, they control the succession. From this it is understood that groups that promoted Morenovallismo are found as collaborators of the second floor of the Marinista movement.


There is no political clique that achieves power unequivocally in the Puebla entity. Before the political alternation that brought the PAN to the state governorship, in reality the PRI and its cliques controlled power, as they continue to do now.


There is a shift from local power groups towards the National Regeneration Movement, from the fiefdoms that have distinguished the historical trajectory in Puebla. Traditional groups, fiefdoms, nodes and chiefdoms, execute collaborative factionalism to retain control of the entity. Those groups or characters that do not agree with them are not included in the rotation by the public administration.


Marinismo, in its first stage, decided to rely on Chiapas groups, Lebanese oligarchies and their personal clique to achieve national power. He did not achieve his goal, because traditional groups sabotaged his project. Launching a program without considering local factions received the corresponding sanction and, thanks to that, Morenovallismo was able to form. Later, this group exercised that exclusion of which Mario Marín was accused and the elimination of non-conformists and dissidents was even more aggressive.


The political traditionalism of the entity now maintains its balance through the candidacy of Alejandro Armenta; Local politicians have gathered around Morenoballism and Marinism appears as the first level of the next government, but there are elements of other cliques such as Morenovallism, Melquiadism, and regional chiefdoms.


Puebla is a fiefdom of local political groups and they act according to their convenience; Even the regional Catholic high clergy also supports Morenoist Armentism. The local right relied on barbarism, but was never able to get a common project off the ground because the traditional chiefdoms are strong and aggressive.


Puebla returns to a dynamic of patronage, vassalage, caciquismo and clientelism. Rafael Moreno Valle, an autocrat who exceeded power until the sultanate, understood that the entity could not remain in that backwardness because it increased poverty and underdevelopment exponentially; However, the reality of the decomposition of the Mexican neoliberal regime granted new opportunities to populist and traditional groups.


It is true that in Puebla the middle classes, particularly in the most developed cities of the entity, can balance the vote and dispense a complete burden for Morenoism through electoral rationality. However, the civic, social and urban movements of Puebla have not been able to break the caciquil dynamic of political realism. Even Morena capitulated most of its candidacies to achieve a supposed legislative majority that appears complicated.


The national regeneration movement also runs the risk of becoming extinct after this year's elections, the fiefdoms are weighing the formation of regional parties and the exercise of transfuguism to accommodate a reality where the power of the Mexican presidency remains weak and the regions hijack governance. The capitulation of the Morenoist candidates is a sign of the weakness of momentum that the Fourth Transformation had from the beginning.

Brugada and Taboada divide CDMX

 Brugada and Taboada divide CDMX

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero




Although the last Chilango debate was better divided between Clara Brugada and Santiago Taboada, demographic trends continue to show Mexico City as Morena's Achilles Heel. It is true that the Morenoist bases managed to stop the imposition of candidates outside the social base of the movement; as happened in many other places. However, the long time in power of the left and the errors in the exercise of government constitute heavy burdens that stop the concatenation of the different groups of the left, progressivism and collectivism that could support Brugada and Sheinbaum.


The 2021 electoral results have not been well studied by Clara Brugada. Although her political platform increasingly has better proposals, her vision of government is partial and, in the search for electoral mobilization, she forgets the inclusion of voters other than the traditional Morenoist profile.


President López Obrador has tried to polarize the progressive identity of CDMX, there is no doubt that the historical trends that confronted the authoritarian model of the Hegemonic Party and the rigidity of voracious neoliberalism. However, the country's capital has also become the headquarters of the most active groups against López Obradorism.


Clara Brugada's triumph depends on a full identification with the cosmopolitan progressivism of Mexico City. Social programs and welfare are important for a huge social sector based there; Although, it is also important to consider security for all social levels, education, transportation and mobility policies that a city of such proportion demands. CDMX is one of the most important population references on the planet and perhaps it is time to import some of the references of global governance. Water, pluralism, mobility, entertainment, work and progressivism no longer depend on a single party vision.


The electoral division that is sustained stands out and does not give any indication of advantage for anyone. The truth is that all sides must redouble their efforts and that election day will be of epic proportions for everyone, it is even stated that CDMX may have one of the highest participations in its electoral roll.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Fernando Morales and Free Verifications

 Fernando Morales and Free Verifications

DIEGO MARTIN VELÁZQUEZ CABALLERO




Although he has minimal possibilities to reach the governorship of Puebla (18%) and his family works with Morena, the truth is that Fer Morales has started with good steps due to some ideas that may be important in the policy agenda local public.


The idea of making ecological verifications of motorized transport free of charge has been visible and that fines are only charged for those who evade the process or do not have the mechanical regularization to pass this requirement.


Well observed, the idea is important in one of the states with the largest vehicle fleet in the metropolitan area surrounding Mexico City and where motorists have been criminalized since the arrival of morenovallismo.


One of the most ineffective agencies in Puebla is the Secretary of the Environment, Sustainable Development and Territorial Planning.


This agency is full of corruption and most of its staff is inefficient.


The situation of rivers, air, mountains, forests and, in general, the flora and fauna; It's terrible.


Moreno Valle distinguished himself by promoting neo-extractivism in a totalitarian way, but the Morena governments did nothing to change things.


The environment continues to be the picnic and camping for the golden bureaucracy.


Motorists will hardly vote for Alejandro Armenta and Morena, the alternation after morenovallismo has used the negative development of mobility policies, corruption and coercion towards car owners.


The disaster of poor air quality is proof that the environmental contingency does not concern the responsible officials, the state government did not change the mistreatment of drivers at all: photo fines, constant checkpoints, aggression by the police, disruption of vehicular traffic, etc


On the issue of ecological verifications, the permanent changes in verification technology as well as the manipulated concessions regarding them, suggest that the least important thing in Puebla is the environment and pollution.


Puebla is one of the most opaque states since Morenovallismo.


The environmental situation has been so manipulated that the pollution of the public administration in this regard is worse than global warming.


Thousands of motorists from Puebla come to park in Mexico City, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Morelos and Tlaxcala to avoid the corruption plot regarding vehicle verification.


The verification centers never finished functioning properly and the state administration does not synchronize the proportion between the verification centers, stages and vehicle population.


Fernando Morales makes simple, but intelligent and practical proposals regarding the subject. Vehicle verification must change in the entity and the state administration can do many things about it.


At another time, the mayor of Puebla Luis Paredes built a system of fines so that corruption in the traffic police decreased, the former governor of Aguascalientes Felipe González promoted the use of gas engines to replace polluting mechanisms and finance the improvement of the vehicle fleet.


There are good ideas, but they must be implemented.

Tuesday, May 07, 2024

AMLO: The farewell tour

 AMLO: The farewell tour

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero



It will be a long time before another president shows such concern and love for marginalized groups. The campaigns will continue to be news; Although it doesn't seem like it, many things no longer depend on López Obrador. After June 2, the president-elect will approve or disapprove the courses of action to follow


In Mexico, history is delimited by six-year periods. López Obrador does not present a geopolitical circumstance like that of General Lázaro Cárdenas and, therefore, it is likely that his cycle will culminate in the next federal administration; as it has been since 1952.


The first day is approaching, as Luis Spota pointed out, and López Obradorism will confront itself to become a Church without faithful.


The president knows this and begins to say goodbye.


The fact constitutes the sign of the door ajar for the new messiah to enter Olympus.


In Puebla, the president uses revolutionary nationalism as the guide that nourished his political school.


Everything he stated is true, but only in his six-year term. He who comes will find his own path.


Society, the common people, knows it and feels the nostalgia along with it.


Although the paraphernalia of the campaigns is in full swing, people approach López Obrador to say goodbye to him and express their solidarity in the final stage of his mandate. Popular history affirms that governments like this are not common.


This is perhaps why the social farewell is authentic.


It will be a long time before another president shows such concern and love for marginalized groups. The campaigns will continue to be news; Although it doesn't seem like it, many things no longer depend on López Obrador.


After June 2, the president-elect will approve or disapprove the courses of action to be followed.


AMLO's enemies also raise their tone regarding the end of the six-year term, although things will hardly change.


The six-year period of the Fourth Transformation will be evaluated by history, immediate and long-term.


Time will tell if things were used enough and what the mistakes or failures were. What could have happened and did not happen.


If the morenocracy gained recognition against the gueritocracy. López Obrador had the support of the people and corresponded with the collective actors who supported his perspective of the country and worldview of governing.


The other story, the new six-year term, is about to begin. Yankee imperialism does not allow transexenality or continuity, geopolitics outweighs our nationalism.


Claudia Sheinbaum will demonstrate whether or not she was able to take advantage of the dividends of Lopez Obradorism.


People say goodbye to an esteemed and beloved president; despite everything and against many.


That is why they chose him, it was heard saying, so that the Creole oligarchy remembers that the popular actor exists and deep Mexico resists. Goodbye AMLO.