The Fourth Transformation Facing Donald Trump

 The Fourth Transformation Facing Donald Trump

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

In the analysis of political transitions, the theory of the rupture of the dominant coalition explains how, at certain moments, the groups sustaining a regime or political system begin to splinter or weaken due to internal changes or external pressures.

In the case of Morena—the party that has concentrated power in Mexico in recent years—one can observe a process that appears to be approaching such a rupture, particularly in light of pressure and accusations regarding U.S. intervention in the country's internal affairs.

Donald Trump and, subsequently, other actors in the United States have asserted that Mexico is governed by drug trafficking and "narco-politics," a claim that has had a profound impact on the various internal factions of Morena.

For some time now, Morena has not been a homogeneous bloc; within it exist distinct currents and figures with varied interests and loyalties.

Some of these actors—considered the "softliners"—have begun seeking agreements and understandings with U.S. authorities, hoping to safeguard their positions and avoid being directly affected by external pressures.

Others—the more radical or "hardline" elements—maintain a stance of resistance, defending national sovereignty and criticizing foreign interference.

However, tension between these internal groups has intensified in recent months, creating an atmosphere of mistrust, fragmentation, and power struggles.

The situation is reminiscent, in certain respects, of what occurred in Venezuela following the U.S. and its allies' targeting of Nicolás Maduro.

In that scenario, different factions within Chavismo split between those who accepted external negotiations to maintain their standing and those who resisted and fought to preserve the regime's autonomy.

In Mexico, some Morena actors appear to be following a similar path, seeking—from within—agreements with the United States that would allow them to preserve their influence and, in some cases, distance themselves from the radicalism that they view as a threat to their political survival.

Can we speak, then, of a rupture in Morena's dominant coalition? The evidence suggests the answer is yes. The unity that once seemed solid around López Obrador and his transformation project is now under threat.

Internal factions are increasingly acting in their own self-interest and for political survival, within a landscape where external pressure has acted as a catalyst for emerging divisions.

In this context, the struggle for power in Mexico is no longer merely an internal dispute; it has become a battle where alliances are being redrawn based on who is willing and able to negotiate with the United States, and who prefers to resist and maintain a confrontational stance.

While it cannot yet be stated with certainty that the Morena coalition has definitively fractured, the signs indicate that the process is underway.

External pressure, internal fragmentation, and power struggles are creating a scenario where alliances and loyalties are becoming blurred, and the cohesion that underpinned the so-called "Fourth Transformation" is beginning to give way.

Mexico's political history—and parallels with other cases in the region—suggest that if this trend continues, Morena could face a process similar to that of Venezuela, where internal rifts and external pressures ultimately redefine the political system in ways that cannot yet be clearly foreseen.

Go West: Is There Still Time?

 Go West: Is There Still Time?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Years ago, Fredo Arias King warned that democratization in Mexico faced a fundamental challenge: the need to build a quality democracy that would break with the legacy of clientelistic corporatism, which for decades had been the backbone of the political system.

His analysis, inspired by the experiences of democratization in Eastern Europe, indicated that the key to profound change lay in adopting the experiences of post-Soviet Central European anti-communism as a unifying element that would allow for the dismantling of authoritarian structures and pave the way for solid, independent, and accountable institutions.

The songs of Scorpions and Pet Shop Boys illustrated the optimism of the time for achieving the democracy of open societies.

In Eastern Europe, the defeat of communism not only implied a political transition but also the construction of a discourse that confronted the legacy of a regime based on ideology, repression, and subordination.

Anti-communism served as a catalyst for consolidating a democratic identity and justifying the break with the authoritarian past.

The narrative was one of liberating society from an ideological enemy, which facilitated the acceptance of change and the construction of new institutions.

The experience offered a lesson: without a clear diagnosis of the system's flaws and without a discourse that mobilizes citizens around profound democratic values, the transition can remain a superficial process, vulnerable to authoritarian relapses and the capture of institutions by elites.

In Mexico, history was different. The struggle against the PRI's authoritarianism was not framed around an ideological enemy, but rather as a search for legitimacy through competitive elections.

However, this strategy took more than twenty years to reveal its limitations.

Fredo Arias King was right to point out, before Denisse Dresser, Héctor Aguilar Camín, Lorenzo Córdova, and José Woldenberg, what it would cost to avoid the necessary historical ruptures to establish liberal capitalist democracy in Mexico and abandon the old regime of the Mexican Revolution—the platypus of the ostentatious, philanthropic ogre.

Neoliberal analysts belatedly recognized that the transition was insufficient to consolidate a quality democracy.

The fragility of the rule of law, the persistence of clientelism, and the inability to transform power structures into a genuinely democratic institutional framework left Mexico in a kind of limbo, vulnerable to populism and deeper subordination to the interests of the United States.

The Chilean experience offers a valuable lesson.

The departure of Pinochet and the process of democratic consolidation in Chile demonstrated that building strong institutions, coupled with a historical memory that promotes reconciliation, can prevent suicidal populism.

The key was a transition that was not merely formal, but involved profound social and economic reforms and a commitment to a high-quality democracy that prioritized institutional values ​​and citizen participation.

Observing these processes from Arias King's perspective invites Mexico to reflect on the need to abandon the logic of anti-communism as a strategy for rupture and, instead, commit to a narrative that strengthens democratic institutions and values.

The history of Eastern Europe shows that without a clear discourse against authoritarian legacies and without a real commitment to building a high-quality democracy, progress can be ephemeral, and the risk of falling back into authoritarianism increases.

The Chilean experience, for its part, shows that the transition can be lasting and solid if institutional reforms are accompanied by a strong and participatory democratic culture.

In a context where populism seems to lurk around every corner, Mexico needs to look to the West and learn that true democratization requires more than competitive elections.

It implies a deep commitment to building solid institutions, to definitively breaking with the corporatist past, and to a narrative that mobilizes citizens around democratic values, not around ideological enemies.

Only in this way can suicidal populism be avoided and progress made toward a future where popular sovereignty is a consolidated reality, not a mere mirage.

The Fourth Transformation moves to the Center

The Fourth Transformation moves to the Center

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The transfuguism and involvement of different personalities with Morena, although alien to the left-wing ecofeminist progressivism that distinguishes the pure and original networks, has become the main characteristic heading into the 2024 elections.

The situation has been questioned by the media and different analysts, not to mention the former Morena militants themselves who have been harmed by these circumstances.

Zepeda Patterson argues that the climate of polarization is partially causal for this process.

The 4T is not a class struggle, although the liberation of the subaltern sectors – at least in the discourse – was a purpose.

The Mexican State must oscillate between well-being and capitalist liberalism, as the interests of North Americans dictate.

It is unthinkable and impossible for Mexico to oppose the Yankee Empire.

The Mexican Prince resumes his robes, but cannot break the domination of the American Caesar.

Maintain the unity of the country, manage differences; Although the desired national reconciliation does not exist, it is the purpose of a good government.

Despite its contradictions, Morena has achieved it and, to avoid greater interventionism from the United States, the inclusion of moderate actors - even strangers, outsiders or new ones - as well as the formulation of inclusive policies for the Initiative is vital in its political perspective. Private.

Some of the public policies that Morena, and especially AMLO, promoted, will surely remain for another six-year term.

The time necessary for the United States to be able to propose a geopolitics that allows them to better address drug trafficking and emigration.

Not only President López Obrador is responsible for the polarization.

A nation with the history of Mexico is only held on pins and needles and a true process of nationalism would be more detrimental to millions of people.

The hatred and resentment in Mexico are not about social classes but about classes, races, regions and circumstances.

Reconciliation is a longing, but deep down it is impossible. Hence, Morenoist pragmatism has this logic and paradox.

The search for the center is nothing other than the change without rupture of Manuel Camacho Solís, the ad eternum renewal of the pact of domination, the mooring of the anarchist Mexican muégano that for better or worse – according to Escalante Gonzalbo – keeps this country cohesive.