Will Mexico save NAFTA?

 Will Mexico Save NAFTA?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The viability of the Mexican economy in the 21st century lies not in romantic diversification toward transatlantic or Asian horizons, but in consolidating its identity as a fundamental pillar of the North American region.

Given the complex estrangement that has characterized the relationship with the Donald Trump administration, Secretary Marcelo Ebrard's strategy of strengthening ties with Ottawa is not only a shrewd diplomatic move, but an imperative for commercial survival.

Mexico and Canada now share the urgent need to rescue the continental vision that Robert Pastor proposed decades ago: an integrated North America that transcends mere geographic proximity to become a community of shared interests.

This strategic alliance seeks to shield the USMCA from protectionist impulses, recognizing that both countries are the United States' most stable and complementary partners.

Attempting to replace this bloc with support from Europe or Asia is, from a business perspective, a systemic miscalculation, given that our logistics and production structures are intrinsically designed for regional integration.

The strength of the balance of payments is the clearest indicator for decision-making in the highest corporate and diplomatic spheres.

While intra-North American trade generates a surplus that sustains macroeconomic stability and strengthens local value chains, trade relations with Asian giants and European powers tend to deepen a deficit that weakens our financial maneuvering capacity.

Far from being over, liberal globalization has been reconfigured toward a profound regionalism where proximity and security of supply are the new strategic assets.

Mexico must understand that its place at the global table depends on its ability to act as a bloc with its northern partners; any attempt at isolation or the search for geographically distant alternatives would only fragment the resilience that the most dynamic market on the planet provides us.

In this sense, the current mission is none other than to reaffirm that Mexico's prosperity is inextricably linked to the stability of North America, preventing an economic catastrophe through the technical and pragmatic defense of our continental integration.

While the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) delves into a labyrinth of sterile factionalism, where the project's founding promises seem to dissolve in a confrontation of regionalisms and particular power brokers, a figure emerges who prioritizes the viability of the State over the rhetoric of conflict.

While the party structure risks implosion due to the struggle of centrifugal leaders who neglect the general welfare, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón is consolidating his position as the architect of a transition toward economic modernization, precisely articulating the ideal mechanisms for wealth creation and the stability of production chains. His administration transcends ideological disputes to focus on Mexico's strategic integration into the international community, demonstrating that true transformation lies not in the hegemony of any one group, but in the technical capacity to safeguard the future against uncertainty.

On the horizon of national politics, only he who holds the key to external harmony and control over the flow of capital will be able to steer the ship of state when the winds of internal discord finally run out of steam.

The path is laid out for those who understand that order is the necessary prelude to true freedom, and their moment will arrive when the echo of reason drowns out the noise of assault.

Meta God AI

 Meta God AI

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Contemporary thought, enriched by the recent interventions of Yuval Noah Harari, warns that humanity faces an unprecedented challenge due to the rise of artificial intelligence.

Harari has emphasized that, unlike any previous technology, AI is capable of creating ideas, narratives, and even new cults, displacing human beings from their historical role as the sole generators of cultural meaning.

The Davos forum has validated this view, recognizing that we are not simply facing another production tool, but rather an entity capable of hacking the operating system of our civilization.

From a perspective of responsible foresight, the future should not be interpreted merely as job displacement, but as a profound existential crisis.

Artificial intelligence not only automates tasks, but is also beginning to colonize the realm of the sacred, giving rise to epiphanies and digital utopias that could supplant traditional humanist values. While the private sector pays homage to this new technological deity for its economic efficiency, governments seem incapable of establishing regulatory frameworks to contain what some call a digital Terminator.

The education system faces an absolute crossroads. Institutional paralysis in the face of the speed of these changes suggests that current skills could become obsolete in the face of a geoeconomic landscape that, in its struggle for hegemony between powers like China and the United States, threatens to create a useless class of global proportions.

To mitigate this risk, education must shift toward rescuing the essence of humanity, prioritizing professions that require empathy, ethics, and a physical connection to reality—elements that computing cannot yet authentically replicate.

Responsible foresight demands that humanity not surrender to a destructive technological determinism.

It is not about waiting for a digital blackout, but about implementing public policies that ensure AI functions as a complement to, and not a substitute for, our species.

The risk of descending into technocratic totalitarianism is real, but the capacity to respond lies in our ability to collaborate and reaffirm the sovereignty of human judgment.

Beyond the apocalyptic visions of science fiction, the challenge is to design a global social contract that protects our identity against the advance of this new algorithmic god, ensuring that the future remains for life.

Mexico, Schweizer's Prague Cemetery?

 Mexico, Schweizer's Prague Cemetery?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Mexican sovereignty, more than an exercise in self-determination, has transformed into a sophisticated theatrical set where the main action is decided in foreign offices.

Observing the current reality through the analytical lens of Anabel Hernández and María Idalia Gómez, it becomes clear that the recent massive hack of national institutions was not just a technical incident, but the culmination of an operational tutelage.

A true digital coup d'état, as Schweizer describes it.

In this scenario, Mexico operates as a kind of American Sicily: a laboratory of containment and experimentation where US intelligence observes how far its global enemies can penetrate before the system collapses.

This dynamic evokes the atmosphere of Umberto Eco's The Prague Cemetery, where the creation of conspiracies and the manipulation of falsehoods ultimately shape geopolitical reality.

Peter Schweizer's thesis on the infiltration of foreign powers positions him as one of those figures who, like the young people who initiate the game in Foucault's Pendulum, believe they have uncovered a hidden plot, only to end up as victims of the very conspiracy they are trying to expose.

If Schweizer is right and strategic enemies—Russia, China, or the Middle East—are looming over the territory, then Mexico ceases to be a state and becomes a buffer zone where the ends justify any means of espionage.

From academia, authors such as Robert Pastor and Alain Rouquieu have emphasized that Mexico's integration into the North American sphere of influence is a structural condition that nullifies its autonomy.

For Daniela Spenser, the history of national intelligence services has always been subordinate to Washington's priorities.

Under this logic, the Mexican government is sidelined not for lack of will, but due to an economic and security dependence, both formal and informal, that ties its hands.

The hall of mirrors is absolute: the rhetoric of independence is permitted while the data infrastructure is managed from the North.

Mexico is the chessboard where the resilience of Western rivals is measured, but also the laboratory where the effectiveness of total control is tested.

Ultimately, sovereignty is a literary concept in a world of stark political realism, where the country fulfills its destiny as the final frontier of an empire that prefers to observe the chaos from the peephole rather than allow another actor to move the pieces in its Sicilian laboratory.

The Importance of an Effective Electoral System

 The Importance of an Effective Electoral System

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The Mexican political system, like Latin American presidential systems in general, has reached a critical point in the debate surrounding its electoral and governance structure.

Experience reveals that outside the United States, presidentialism does not function effectively and has faced severe problems stemming from the separation of powers, high electoral competitiveness, and political fragmentation.

In Mexico, the electoral system has been subject to numerous reforms that, far from resolving these problems, seem to cyclically fall into the same errors, perpetuating a quagmire that hinders democratic governance and favors the intervention of de facto powers and external actors, such as the United States.

Giovanni Sartori, in his work on constitutional engineering, proposed the concept of intermittent presidentialism.

This idea should not be understood as a derogatory critique, but rather as a strategy to make presidentialism functional in contexts where governance has been severely compromised.

Adopting measures such as implementing runoff elections for all offices, eliminating corrupt practices in party financing, and reducing the influence of powerful vested interests are concrete steps toward strengthening a presidential system that, in its intermittent form, can offer greater stability and democratic control.

Accumulating evidence indicates that electoral reforms in Mexico have been insufficient, and that social distrust and the ambition of political parties only deepen the crisis.

One option, perhaps radical but plausible, would be to adopt elements of the U.S. electoral system to mitigate the erosion of presidential power.

The political history of Latin America demands robust democratic governance, and reforms must go beyond mere stopgap measures, promoting a Sartorian model that makes presidential power functional, inhibits the influence of external and vested interests, and guarantees the effective exercise of political power.

Continuing in the same logic of collisions only demonstrates that Mexican political science has failed to translate its knowledge into practical solutions, and that, ultimately, the country remains trapped in an electoral organization model that, despite its formal changes, maintains the structure of a system that fails to respond to the challenges of modern governance.

North America. A new war of samurais against Tlaxcalians?

North America. A new war of Samurais against Tlaxcalians?  Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Recent history and global geopolitical dynamics reveal that empires and nations are in constant transformation, driven by economic, strategic, and cultural interests. In recent years, the contribution of various Indigenous groups to the construction of the Spanish Empire has been emphasized, sometimes sensationally, highlighting the struggles on various Asian peninsulas where Spain attempted to expand and spread the Catholic Counter-Reformation in strategic territories of global significance. Historical evidence clearly shows how great powers have vied for resources, influence, and hegemony in scenarios where power dynamics have been defined by competition for natural resources, trade routes, and military control, revealing a recurring pattern in the history of empires and their confrontations.

In the contemporary context, North America emerges as the main stage for a possible geopolitical reconfiguration, where China and the United States appear poised to star in a new edition of the Cold War. The competition for global hegemony is shifting to this continent, which in recent decades has been an epicenter of economic, political, and military tensions and disputes. China's expansion in the Americas, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative, and its growing presence in countries like Mexico and Canada, point to a consolidation process that could alter the regional balance. China's presence in North America involves not only economic interests but also strategic ones, with the potential creation of "forward ports" in Canada and the expansion of its influence in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology.

The Canadian case is particularly relevant, given that its decision to strengthen economic ties with China and accelerate its process of de-Americanization has generated far-reaching concerns. The possibility of Canada becoming inundated with Chinese immigrants, as has happened in the United States with approximately 50 million undocumented Mexican immigrants, raises a series of questions about the country's social and demographic transformation. The informal economic alliance with China, which has deepened in the current context, can be interpreted as an attempt by Canada to emancipate itself from US influence, seeking a path to autonomy that entails high political and social costs. The question that arises is whether the United States will allow China to move its "beachheads" to areas closer to its border, thus consolidating a presence that could jeopardize US supremacy in its own sphere of influence. China is overwhelming the United States economically and industrially, in addition to drugging the Anglo-Saxon population with fentanyl.

The Canadian decision, in this sense, represents an act of audacity that challenges traditional US hegemony, revealing a strategy of de-Americanization that, while costly, reflects a desire for autonomy. The question then becomes what consequences this policy will have for Mexico and the rest of the countries in the region. The possibility that North America could become an arena where Chinese and Mexican immigrants might engage in a socioeconomic and cultural dispute is a hypothesis that should not be dismissed, particularly if we consider that the United States and China could maintain a low-intensity war or a containment agreement, which in practice would amount to a form of "Detente."

In this scenario, the tension between migrant communities could resemble a Vietnam-style conflict within the United States' Lebensraum, where colonial needs and the struggle for resources and social recognition intertwine, generating a dispute that would be exploited by external actors seeking to weaken American influence. The Canadian decision, therefore, not only shocks the American empire but also redefines the power dynamics in the region. The difference between the rebellions in Brazil or Venezuela and the intransigence in Canada lies in the proximity and strategic importance of the northern country, which could mark a turning point in continental geopolitics. The future of tomorrow is being built today, and within it, the struggle for influence in North America will reflect the global tensions that will define the balance of power in the coming years.

Intervention in Mexico or War South of the United States?

 Intervention in Mexico or War South of the United States?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

A prospective analysis of an intervention in Mexico is incomplete if it fails to recognize that the most critical battlefront for U.S. national security is not in the Sierra Madre, but rather in the arteries of its own territory.

Before attempting to cross the Rio Grande south, the Donald Trump administration must confront the reality that drug trafficking and institutional erosion have already colonized the Sun Belt states.

California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida are not just border states; they are the operational center of an informal economy that has permeated local power structures, creating a scenario where the distinction between transnational crime and everyday life is almost nonexistent.

As Langley’s hypothesis and Samuel Huntington’s studies on the Hispanic challenge warn, the lack of effective cultural assimilation and the porous nature of the law have allowed the Mexican cacique model to be successfully replicated on U.S. soil.

If Washington seeks to prevent the country's disintegration, the true "punitive expedition" must begin within its borders.

An internal purge in the southern United States is the mandatory prerequisite for any external action.

Order cannot be restored in a neighboring country when the border cities themselves operate under the logic of Mexamerica, where corruption in public administration and infiltration of intelligence agencies have created a sanctuary for the very actors they are meant to combat.

The danger, as George Friedman rightly pointed out, is that an invasion of Mexico without a prior purge in the southern United States would trigger an internal asymmetric resistance of incalculable proportions.

The most powerful drug traffickers are not farmers in Sinaloa; they are invisible figures operating from luxury condominiums in Florida and logistical centers in Texas.

Starting a war in Mexico while these actors maintain their mobilization capacity within the United States is to guarantee a low-intensity civil war on its own soil.

Huntington established that linguistic and cultural fragmentation poses a risk to national identity; however, the immediate risk is the fragmentation of the monopoly on the use of force.

The capture of drug cartel leaders or high-ranking politicians with ties to organized crime, as has occurred in countries like Venezuela, Colombia, and Panama, has often proven to be a limited and short-lived strategy, since in Mexico such a measure is practically useless.

This is because the Mexican government lacks effective control over criminal organizations, which operate in an environment of complete chaos and violence.

The existence of multiple cartels, acting independently and in constant conflict, prevents authorities from focusing on specific capture targets, creating a scenario in which eliminating a leader only leads to the rapid reconfiguration of these groups.

Furthermore, history has shown that, instead of weakening them, the death or capture of a leader fosters the proliferation of cells and the creation of new criminal structures, which quickly adapt to the power vacuum.

This phenomenon turns the fight against drug trafficking into a kind of chess game in which, instead of eradicating the disease, it is perpetuated and exacerbated, transforming criminal organizations into a cancer that spreads and becomes more resistant with each failed attempt.

For all these reasons, focusing solely on capturing leaders, without addressing the root causes of the problem, is an incomplete strategy and, in many cases, counterproductive to the country's security.

Therefore, the drug war strategy for Mexico must be, above all, a strategy of internal regeneration.

The United States must apply in its own South the iron fist it plans to export. Eliminating local power brokers in California and Texas, dismantling the money laundering networks that sustain the informal caste system in the southern metropolises, and purging the bureaucracy that has facilitated this exchange is the only way to safeguard the Empire. Only when the southern United States ceases to be the playground of the drug oligarchy can Washington hope to stabilize Mexico through a strong interlocutor.

The battle for American sovereignty will not be won at the Altiplano, but rather through a thorough cleansing of its own borders, before the Hispanic challenge becomes the definitive fracture of the American dream.

Mexico and the Canadian Bet

Mexico and the Canadian Bet

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The economic and political reality of Mexico reveals that, despite rhetoric and aspirations for independence, the country remains deeply tied to the U.S. economy.

The global trend, as evidenced by Canada's recent alliances with China, shows a shift toward diversification and the search for new trading partners.

However, in the Mexican case, this strategy is not only unfeasible but also dangerous.

Trade with the United States represents more than 80% of Mexican exports, and the dependence on this market is so pronounced that any change in U.S. policy has a direct effect on the country's economic stability.

Data indicates that Mexican imports from China have almost doubled in the last decade, reaching $62 billion by 2025, with intermediate goods that enhance the competitiveness of Mexican industry.

But this same vulnerability is reflected in exports, which reached a record $5.2 billion in 2022, primarily minerals, electronic circuits, and auto parts, all destined for China.

However, this diversification does not alter the reality: the Mexican economy is structurally designed to depend on the United States.

Canada's proposal to reduce its dependence on the U.S. through agreements with China and other countries serves as an example that Mexico cannot afford to ignore, but it also reveals the complexity of doing so without losing stability and sovereignty.

The narrative of Mexican nationalism, a pantheon of myths, has fueled a perception of self-sufficiency for decades, which in reality has only served to reinforce dependence.

The idea that Mexico can become a middle power, like Canada, requires not only a solid economic strategy but also a profound cultural shift, one that blends Anglo-Saxon and Mexican influences to build a more autonomous identity.

However, in practice, the country remains a U.S. backyard, with an economy and politics that reflect this subordination.

While Canada seeks alliances with China to reduce its dependence, Mexico remains trapped in a system where economic sovereignty is increasingly becoming an illusion.

The stark reality is that, however painful it may be to accept, Mexico cannot break free from the United States without jeopardizing its stability, its jobs, and its very future.

This dependence is not only economic, but also cultural and political, and this reality, however much it is disguised, is one of the main barriers preventing Mexico from truly taking off without this shadow that ultimately shapes its destiny.