Amlo: The Next Santa Anna?
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
Compared to the United States, most Mexican presidents have been surrenderists. It could not be otherwise, nuclear diplomacy and internal factionalism establish a scenario where tribal survival is the highest priority. As a tributary state of North America, Mexico must pay its quota or floor right and sacrifice what is necessary. Each Mexican president establishes a governance agreement where he accepts the balance between American demands and the internal demands of interest groups. Some Heads of State in the country have preferred to hand over remote control to the United States, others try to do a little with the little power that the Yankee empire allows. The idea of the powerful president who can do almost anything is just a myth given the Mexican neighborhood.
According to the perspective generated by Fernando Escalante Gonzalbo and Roger Bartra, the post-pandemic and economic recovery processes are generating severe crisis scenarios for North America where emigration, organized crime and social problems make the insecurity of the United States polysemic and only the invasion remains. to Mexico to inhibit the gigantic accumulation of immigration from Latin America and particularly from our country. According to the rhetoric of the Republican Party - and the Mexican red circle - the issue of emigration and social conflicts in Latin America attack the neighborhood with the United States, mass emigrations seem to be proposing a replacement of the Anglo-Saxon population. Where is Mexican and Latin American emigration headed? To take North America. And the externalities that this situation causes can cause the disintegration of the American Union. The idea of open doors that American society had had to emigration seems to be running out in the event that electoral support is directed to Donald Trump. For this reason, an invasion of Mexico is taking shape and, apparently, the government of the Fourth Transformation seems to be identifying with this situation because it is incompetent to remedy the problem.
The scenario of the War against Drug Trafficking deeply weakens the Mexican State and its Army. The blurring of national sovereignty in the face of organized crime leaves the free will of the United States to establish a cordon sanitaire to protect them. And, according to the rhetoric of American Republicans, the decision – although reckless – will not take long to be carried out.
From this point of view, the development that López Obrador is proposing in the South of Mexico has no other objective than to hand over the North of the country to the United States. The national security crisis that Mexico has in the face of drug trafficking determines that the United States takes control of the civilizational limits that José Vasconcelos proposed for the Mexican Republic. The territorial points that are contemplated to be co-opted by North America are strategic for the Maquiladora Industry, Assembly Plants and Development Zones where immigration can be stopped and the fight against drug trafficking can operate. The Mexican south is changing in its infrastructure and metropolitan area; But, now, the evils that influenced Mexican misgovernance are also migrating to this region, particularly drug trafficking, as well as the patrimonial bureaucracy and neo-extractivism that represents capitalism by distinctive dispossession of the Latin American oligarchies. Chiapas is a serious example, although other entities such as Puebla are not far behind.
Apparently, as in 1847, the president of Mexico has been a collaborator of the geopolitical strategy of the American Union. General Santa Anna shared significant information regarding access routes for the invasion, collateral damage, weak points, fortifications to take and all the information necessary so that, in a short period, the Americans could settle in the republic for almost a year. Even Santa Anna carried out a purchase and sale transaction. It should be noted that the Catholic Church also proposed the annexation of Mexico to the Yankee Empire.
For the red circle that seeks to deepen North American intervention, Mexico will be split if the Fourth Transformation continues for more than two periods. Nearshoring and the uncontrolled dynamics that the interaction between Mexico and North America has taken will lead to the North and West of our country being grafted to the American Union; However, in 2024 the vote for Morena was the majority in most of the northern states.
The perceived threat of Mexican ungovernability calls for AMLO to collaborate with the United States to avoid major problems. The United States manifests the true dynamic of protectionism towards Mexico, but the limits have reached the extreme.
The Pact for Mexico, one more Santanista act, ended up developing the harmful effects of neoliberalism, nor was the country modernized and the policies to close the economic and social gap were not implemented. Now, everything has become complicated. Drug trafficking is the most radical, savage and totalitarian de facto power; Mexico can no longer face it without dragging the United States into disaster.
North America faces the scenario of managing the situation of its imperial decline and economic crisis in the best possible way. She needs Mexican slavery and has the capacity to militarize the territories that her industry requires more than effectively. The border states in northern Mexico have left their nationalism as an increasingly distant echo; the economic and social reality represents a de facto integration.
Mexican nationalism is dependent on the United States, therefore, the degree of colonialism is not only reflected in the historical flirtation of the elites but also of society. Mexican emigration to the American Union has been more than a diaspora in the second half of the 20th century; However, even with a population greater than a whopping 50 million compatriots in Anglo-Saxon land, Mexico could not take over the United States; the opposite is logical. The Mexican economic dependence on North America signed since the Treaties of Guadalupe Hidalgo and reaffirmed with the Treaties of Bucareli, NAFTA and TMEC, which imply not opposing any resistance to North American interventionism.
The economic policies of the fourth transformation do not make progress in closing the difference between Mexico and the United States. The Huntington and Fukuyama gap extends, like the McLane-Ocampo Treaties, to the City of Palaces.