Johnson. Hawk or Dove?
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
Although the presence of an ambassador as the future Trumpist envoy has generated alarm among the analysts of the inner circle and some specialists, the truth is that -with all that risk-, there are also probabilities that Mexico will maintain its sovereignty and capacity to govern to a minimum. The North American military interventions have been multiple, although, with the exception of the loss of half of the national territory in the 19th century; afterwards, there have not been conflicts in the same proportion. It is true that many conservative groups would be delighted with a military intervention by the United States in Mexico; however, this would be unthinkable in the immediate scenarios because, it has been pointed out in the perspective of authors as ambivalent as Pablo González Casanova, George Friedman and Samuel Huntington, the most probable thing is that North America will lose a war against the many Mexicos.
The problem of a conflict between Mexico and the United States poses for the Americans a guerrilla war similar to Vietnam, the fight of an eagle against flocks of turkeys or chickens; surely it will capture some, but it will not be able to take them all. Therefore, the reasons for a total armed intervention and even war are not rational from the American point of view; at least, this is not indicated by the presence of Ronald Johnson.
Although Vietnam constitutes a shameful example of the war history of the United States, in essence, it is its main object of development. The Cold War represented for North America the speculation of war in a permanent and gradualist way; military victory is important, but less than economic victory.
Since the six-year term of Luis Echeverría Álvarez, the United States wants control of Mexico more than military domination and, in fact, there have been American ambassadors more willing to state coups and nothing has happened even though the country is on the border of chaos. Military gradualism serves to develop the US war industry and financial system. The US intervention in Colombia is an example of the significance of the drug trafficking issue; officials like Oliver North are more important than Chris Kyle. US militarism remains trapped in the logic of lions for lambs.