Drug Trafficking. A Mexico-United States Bilateral Treaty
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
The Mexican state's capacity to control drug trafficking is increasingly diminishing, and increasing social anomie is manifested by rising violence and corruption. Despite the White House's pressure on our country with tariffs and even military intervention, Mexican governance in terms of national security is simply weak. Mexico's capacity to combat drug trafficking is historically insufficient; it lacks the institutional capacity to reduce the power of the cartels or to capture the members of the various criminal networks.
The institutions of the Mexican political system must allow the United States to take charge of controlling drug trafficking by allowing its members to enter the country. Just as during the Second French Intervention, liberal Mexicans turned to the Americans to contain the strength of the conservative monarchists, now the drug trafficking situation may provide a basis for joint action by the United States and the Mexican army. During the delahuertista rebellion, the Cristero War, and other circumstances, "Bucareli Agreements" have had to be developed to secure definitive US support in the balance of forces in Mexico. According to Miguel Basañez's hypothesis, the struggle for hegemony in Mexico is not determined for anyone, and only those who establish effective alliances with the United States can temporarily consolidate their strength. The government, the formal representative of the State, merely represents one more actor in the dynamic vectors of political dialectics; without the United States, it seems that no one rules in Mexico, or rather, that the United States is the one who truly rules the country.
The flow of Mexican emigration to the United States may be a factor in the reduction of Mexican nationalism with respect to a major military intervention directed from the White House. Although the emergence of an element dissatisfied with interventionism is likely, the truth is that the porcupine has been stripped of its spines by the enormous internal violence. George Friedman's 2080 scenario cannot be ignored, but it must also be considered that migrants and a significant national sector have been optimally integrated into the North American socioeconomic structure since the late 20th century.
Collaborative approaches such as those proposed by the McLane-Ocampo Treaty also allow for the restoration of the USMCA, nearshoring, migration, and even the transfer of psychotropic drugs demanded by the North American population. Mexican nationalism needs the capitalist impulse of the United States to develop and modernize the productive and social structures of the Habsburg Model. If the government of the Fourth Transformation isolates itself from North America, it will inevitably be held hostage by the most radical conservatism of Hispanic Catholic nationalism, which freezes time and only knows how to manage poverty. Without international support, Mexico cannot win the war against drug trafficking and corruption.