The Geopolitical Dilemma of Mexican Drug Trafficking
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
George Friedman seems increasingly accurate in his analysis of the necessary confrontation between Mexico and the United States over drug trafficking. The war predicted by Friedman in 2080 will not be waged by Mexico and the United States as state entities; the fight will be between guerrilla groups representing economic interests and national identities. The overwhelming discovery of hundreds of clandestine graves and extermination camps in our country, as well as the level of violence reached by the war on drugs, force us to envision scenarios of coexistence and cohabitation between drug trafficking fiefdoms and the United States, averting a prolonged guerrilla war disguised as a fight against terrorism.
Until now, Mexican drug trafficking groups have been supplied with weapons by American companies; But, after the White House has designated the cartels as terrorists, it's worth asking how these factions will obtain the necessary arsenal to confront the United States. Mexico's lack of control could lead the nine North American nations to develop an internal war within the United States.
The new US ambassador is the polar opposite of Ken Salazar, who was characterized by his proximity and willingness to negotiate with AMLO. However, between the two, bad cop and good cop, the drug trafficking situation in Mexico changes little, almost nothing. The United States must finance and participate in the war against drug trafficking being waged in Mexico, in addition to promoting domestic health campaigns to prevent addiction. Beyond good and bad cops, Mexico needs emissaries from the United States who contribute financially and materially to addressing this fundamental issue in the social fabric of both countries.
At the beginning of the 20th century, the war on alcohol was not won by the US government. On the contrary, given the high rate of violence, the US government finally had to accept the repeal of Prohibition and the significant contribution of alcohol to the economy, despite considering its harmful externalities. The same thing is happening with drugs. The level of violence that cannot be controlled in Mexico will soon reach the United States. In other words, beyond the cartels seeking the support of Mexicans in North America to launch a war, the truth is that the characteristics of a failed state that Mexico has experienced for several six-year terms will soon be common in the United States.
George Friedman's scenario is not a war like those driven by geopolitical or ideological interests. The United States will soon return to the era of Al Capone, and its political institutions will be corrupted; this will be the moment for the intervention of its powerful foreign enemies. This circumstance could lead to the disintegration of the American Union.
Strengthening the Mexican state protects North America, and the White House must promote Mexican governance through understanding with Sheinbaum and the Fourth Transformation.