Drug Trafficking. A Mexico-United States Bilateral Treaty

 Drug Trafficking. A Mexico-United States Bilateral Treaty

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The Mexican state's capacity to control drug trafficking is increasingly diminishing, and increasing social anomie is manifested by rising violence and corruption. Despite the White House's pressure on our country with tariffs and even military intervention, Mexican governance in terms of national security is simply weak. Mexico's capacity to combat drug trafficking is historically insufficient; it lacks the institutional capacity to reduce the power of the cartels or to capture the members of the various criminal networks.

The institutions of the Mexican political system must allow the United States to take charge of controlling drug trafficking by allowing its members to enter the country. Just as during the Second French Intervention, liberal Mexicans turned to the Americans to contain the strength of the conservative monarchists, now the drug trafficking situation may provide a basis for joint action by the United States and the Mexican army. During the delahuertista rebellion, the Cristero War, and other circumstances, "Bucareli Agreements" have had to be developed to secure definitive US support in the balance of forces in Mexico. According to Miguel Basañez's hypothesis, the struggle for hegemony in Mexico is not determined for anyone, and only those who establish effective alliances with the United States can temporarily consolidate their strength. The government, the formal representative of the State, merely represents one more actor in the dynamic vectors of political dialectics; without the United States, it seems that no one rules in Mexico, or rather, that the United States is the one who truly rules the country.

The flow of Mexican emigration to the United States may be a factor in the reduction of Mexican nationalism with respect to a major military intervention directed from the White House. Although the emergence of an element dissatisfied with interventionism is likely, the truth is that the porcupine has been stripped of its spines by the enormous internal violence. George Friedman's 2080 scenario cannot be ignored, but it must also be considered that migrants and a significant national sector have been optimally integrated into the North American socioeconomic structure since the late 20th century.

Collaborative approaches such as those proposed by the McLane-Ocampo Treaty also allow for the restoration of the USMCA, nearshoring, migration, and even the transfer of psychotropic drugs demanded by the North American population. Mexican nationalism needs the capitalist impulse of the United States to develop and modernize the productive and social structures of the Habsburg Model. If the government of the Fourth Transformation isolates itself from North America, it will inevitably be held hostage by the most radical conservatism of Hispanic Catholic nationalism, which freezes time and only knows how to manage poverty. Without international support, Mexico cannot win the war against drug trafficking and corruption.

US Assistance to Combat Drugs in Mexico

 US Assistance to Combat Drugs in Mexico

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

The drug phenomenon is reflected in other circumstances of the North American and Asian economic geopolitics that Mexico is experiencing. As with other products, Mexico serves as a springboard for entry into the North American market. The gravitational pull that the United States exerts on our country is inevitable, causing various elements to atomize and centrifuge toward the United States. Mexico lacks the consumer capacity developed in the North American economy, and therefore, most formal and informal trade lies hidden in Mexico, waiting to enter the United States. Producers and suppliers establish themselves in Mexico with empowerment and build opportunities to leapfrog over American consumerism.

As long as the demand and prices of the most diverse types of contraband are not regulated in the United States, informality will continue to become a key attraction that makes governability in Mexico unsustainable. Donald Trump's administration must contribute to the economic development of the Fourth Transformation to reduce this pull. Demanding that the Mexican government stop all forms of illegal trafficking of products that affect the economy of the Yankee Empire implies the bizarre assumption that a hummingbird can put out a forest fire. Donald Trump has been infected by the magical realism that distinguishes Mexican surrealism.

Mexico does not have the economic, military, or police structure to stop the evils affecting the United States. This is a task for North America, and Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, as well as the actors in the process, would have to explain this to the American consumer. The Mexican government and the cartels themselves have abandoned the task of lobbying the US Congress to insist on legalization and let the laws of the market do their will.

Like other countries tasked with becoming beachheads for Yankee imperialism and its geopolitics, Mexico must request and encourage the influx of economic resources from the US budget, as well as from the Pentagon, to strengthen the institutions responsible for the actions demanded by President Donald Trump. The White House administration must convince itself of Mexico's impossibility as a fortress shield in the immediate future; the corruption so often accused of the country poses a risk of stirring up the United States.

Mexico can fulfill the tasks entrusted to it by Donald Trump if, in the short term, the country changes to resemble South Korea, the Philippines, Spain, Kuwait, or South Africa; in short, there are broad examples. The distance separating the Mexican Republic from the position held by its US allies creates a negative neighborhood that harms US interests. Only aid similar to that provided by the United States to General Ávila Camacho during World War II will bring about the successful alliance that North America seeks. Otherwise, as has just happened in the US stock market, failure entails considerable costs. Even this aid can be audited, like the anti-communist support received during the Cold War, as well as other assistance certified by various international organizations.

The Geopolitical Dilemma of Mexican Drug Trafficking

 The Geopolitical Dilemma of Mexican Drug Trafficking

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

George Friedman seems increasingly accurate in his analysis of the necessary confrontation between Mexico and the United States over drug trafficking. The war predicted by Friedman in 2080 will not be waged by Mexico and the United States as state entities; the fight will be between guerrilla groups representing economic interests and national identities. The overwhelming discovery of hundreds of clandestine graves and extermination camps in our country, as well as the level of violence reached by the war on drugs, force us to envision scenarios of coexistence and cohabitation between drug trafficking fiefdoms and the United States, averting a prolonged guerrilla war disguised as a fight against terrorism.

Until now, Mexican drug trafficking groups have been supplied with weapons by American companies; But, after the White House has designated the cartels as terrorists, it's worth asking how these factions will obtain the necessary arsenal to confront the United States. Mexico's lack of control could lead the nine North American nations to develop an internal war within the United States.

The new US ambassador is the polar opposite of Ken Salazar, who was characterized by his proximity and willingness to negotiate with AMLO. However, between the two, bad cop and good cop, the drug trafficking situation in Mexico changes little, almost nothing. The United States must finance and participate in the war against drug trafficking being waged in Mexico, in addition to promoting domestic health campaigns to prevent addiction. Beyond good and bad cops, Mexico needs emissaries from the United States who contribute financially and materially to addressing this fundamental issue in the social fabric of both countries.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the war on alcohol was not won by the US government. On the contrary, given the high rate of violence, the US government finally had to accept the repeal of Prohibition and the significant contribution of alcohol to the economy, despite considering its harmful externalities. The same thing is happening with drugs. The level of violence that cannot be controlled in Mexico will soon reach the United States. In other words, beyond the cartels seeking the support of Mexicans in North America to launch a war, the truth is that the characteristics of a failed state that Mexico has experienced for several six-year terms will soon be common in the United States.

George Friedman's scenario is not a war like those driven by geopolitical or ideological interests. The United States will soon return to the era of Al Capone, and its political institutions will be corrupted; this will be the moment for the intervention of its powerful foreign enemies. This circumstance could lead to the disintegration of the American Union.

Strengthening the Mexican state protects North America, and the White House must promote Mexican governance through understanding with Sheinbaum and the Fourth Transformation.

The Trumpist Security Strategy in Mexico

 The Trumpist Security Strategy in Mexico

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Although the ultimate purpose of the national security policy built on Donald Trump's demands and regional demands is still under debate, the truth is that important changes are being perceived. The actions of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the Ministry of Security are affecting the intermediate levels of some organized crime sectors. Narco-politicians have begun to fall, and this is important, especially because the groups leading the low-intensity war in Mexico can reduce their violence if the influence of politicians who manipulate conflicts to their advantage is limited; or, alternatively, they represent the apex of power in certain entities.

The Mexican State has been forced to implement measures to control organized crime in accordance with North American interests; however, there are other problems that affect the civilian population and are outside the Trumpist sphere. Claudia Sheinbaum's anti-drug trafficking strategy must correct Trump's demands and make it clear to the US government that its implementation can also contribute to generating effective governance for Republicans. The violence and impunity that have multiplied exponentially in Mexico are also contributing to the US problem.

The Mexican government must insist on subsidies and material support from the United States and various international organizations for the implementation of actions against insecurity in our country. Something has been lacking in the lack of economic understanding on migration and the fight against drugs since the López Obrador administration. Trump's demand for Mexico to resolve drug trafficking to the United States requires extraordinary budgetary amounts that were not contemplated by local or federal governments. Now, the circumstances facing Mexico may call for the participation of other international entities and extraordinary support to try to address a situation that affects drug use in the United States and around the world. The genocides confirmed by the narco-masses in Mexico reveal a problem beyond the capabilities of the National State. This is something more complex than terrorism; it resembles African civil wars.

Claudia Sheinbaum could propose securing resources and understanding with the United States, as well as other organizations, to ensure that Donald Trump's anti-drug strategy is effective and to guarantee the efficacy of the measures implemented. In fact, Mexico is a safe third country in terms of migration. Will the same happen with other dynamics such as drug trafficking and health?

The immediate capture of some narco-politicians and the control of certain regions will allow for improved governance; however, the government of the republic will have to seek funding for the anti-drug macro-policy proposed by North America.

Colonialist Geopolitics

 Colonialist Geopolitics

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Donald Trump behaves like Kaiser Wilhelm II of the Hohenzollern dynasty regarding the global territorial division; his megalomania only meant the preamble to greater damage. Pan-Germanism was not inhibited by the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, it became radicalized until it reached the hell of the Second World War. Wilhelm II was the facade of Adolf Hitler. What will follow after Donald Trump?

Understanding the primitivism of the Trumpist elite that governs the White House can shed light on the prospects of the new world order.

Although it is said that Eurasia represents the new axis of global control where Donald Trump represents the Russian doll, the truth is that the Anglo-Saxon and neoliberal plutocrats can hardly be dominated as happened with the oligarchs under the aegis of Vladimir Putin; the silovik nomenklatura cannot control the world even if it tries to. The realism of force is absolute in the present and surviving democracies, as well as colonized societies, have to consider it.

For Mexico, it means that traditional American imperialism has gone out of control and anything can happen; the prospect of a national future similar to what happened between Ukraine and Russia does not have to be ruled out; Trump's insistence that Canada join the United States can translate into an order for Mexico that can hardly be ignored if the national government and the Morena regime continue adrift.

Since the six-year term of Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, when Mexico was forced by the Mérida Initiative of the Americans to promote a low-intensity war against drug trafficking, the limits of governability were reduced exponentially; now, the presidency of the republic has to reduce the capacity of mobilization of the powers that be and return to the centralism of public administration to ward off a manic expansionism representative of the Trumpists. The impact of Trumpism on the world has been alarming; however, Mexico is the most affected nation of all.

Different actors, national and foreign, cause ungovernability in Mexico; they weaken the presidency of the republic not only to prioritize their particular interests. Now, the gaze of the North American empire is more abusive and perhaps the national government can take advantage of the situation to overtake the powers that be.

Felipe Calderón made the mistake of considering that the national institutional forces had the capacity to contain the pressure of the different interest groups - legal and illegal - in the country, the Mexican State accumulated one of the most significant defeats to its credit. The logic that a monster serves to scare away other monsters may be significant now, Sheinbaum can use the ambition of Yankee imperialism to return governability to Mexico as occurred during the government of Ernesto Zedillo and Miguel de la Madrid.

There is no dispute over the nation in Mexico due to different national development projects, there is an exponential factionalism caused by an internal colonialism and an authoritarian multiculturalism that has reached its limit and is encouraged by the historical enemies of state institutions.

Mexico does not have the organizational capacity of the Ukrainian State; however, under the situation of anarchy, a scenario of problems for society can develop that sets the tone for social displacements towards Central and South America and, even, a dystopia that harms North America. Mexico is to Donald Trump what the Russian winter was to Hitler and Napoleon.

Recovering governability in Mexico can guarantee the permanence of various social groups and, surely, would allow a safer collaboration with the United States for all actors.

Trump comes and his hegemony is raw, his pretension to take over the country is more than absolute and national unity is obligatory in the face of the impact it represents.

The Intermarium and the European Wars

 The Intermarium and the European Wars

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Although the narrative of Western civilization indicates that it enjoys stability and control over the world, it is also true that it presents cleavages and conditions of confrontation that have ended up generating chaos. Modernity has not been an easy conquest for the West either; on the contrary, the origin of the First and Second World Wars lies in the imperialism that ensnares most of the European countries. The conflicts that derive from this ancient practice characterize the testimony of pain and resentment that feeds history. An example of this is the fracture between Europe and Eurasia as a trigger for serious conflicts that continue to take the lives of millions of human beings. In this context, one of the aspects of European imperialism that fuels the civilizing conflict lies in the attempt of Catholic nationalism to impose itself against the Slavic and Baltic elements of European multiculturalism.

The scenario of the Russo-Ukrainian war seems to give validity to the main meaning of Tolstoy's War and Peace; the rejection and confrontation towards Russia also seem inexhaustible. But, even though Europe has justified reasons to oppose Russia, the question of the possibility of a more plural integration continues to arise. Old mistrust has prevented the opening between civilizations, as well as the development and participation of Russia in the West. The destruction of the Tsarist Empire was followed by European subordination to the United States during the Cold War; the Americans even dispensed Nazism, which deserved all the vengeance of the communist reds. Things continue as they were then, but with one constant: Russia wins wars. Perhaps in the most unfair way and with the greatest possible sacrifice; nevertheless, it is necessary to assimilate that Russia will not be destroyed and that Zbgniew Brzezinski's geopolitical strategy has failed. All, however, must follow the path of America in terms of security to avoid economic chaos.

Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary and the Catholic Church have all been willing to build a complicated geopolitical leadership against a powerful figure like Russia; there are no other options. The federalism and economic opening of the Intermarium proposed by Jonathan Levy suggest a model that can include Russia. It is not too late; the heroic defence developed by Ukraine also demonstrated Russia's limits. The inclusion of Eurasia is a necessity for the West.