Does Trump strengthen Sheinbaum within Morena?
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
It doesn't seem that way; on the contrary. Although appearances suggest that President Claudia Sheinbaum has been strengthened by the ninety days of grace granted by Donald Trump, in reality, she faces a significant challenge in her relationship with the governors and internal groups within Morena. Despite her strengthened position, these actors are likely to continue to ignore her due to a pact of impunity and corruption in Mexico, where simulation has become institutionalized.
The trans-sexennial influence of López Obrador's administration and the notable absence of Claudia Sheinbaum indicate that power dynamics in Mexico are dominated by the "caciquil federalism" of local and de facto powers (Andrew Paxman). Governors have a considerable degree of autonomy and can resist or pretend to obey the directives of central power. The Morena governors and cliques play a game of "a thousand masks" with Donald Trump and the United States. Sheinbaum and the Morena governors interact in a game of mixed signals.
The relationship between Sheinbaum and the Morena power groups represents a scenario of "silent disobedience." The governors publicly abide by Sheinbaum's directives, but in practice, they continue their traditional governing practices. They act pragmatically based on their own interests and power groups, using the Morena party as a front for their agendas. Corruption is a reward system that allows elites to maintain the loyalty of their groups. The factions compete, but they do so within a framework of corruption that benefits all. Corruption is not seen as a weakness to be eradicated, but as a tool for governability and personal enrichment.
The president uses financial resources to obtain the loyalty and support of the governors. In return, the governors pretend to abide by federal directives. However, the economic crisis and rampant corruption reveal the message that has prevailed since Vicente Fox's presidency: it is necessary to unite the years of Hidalgo and Carranza. Political cliques in Mexico have turned political defection into religious fundamentalism because it is necessary to abandon ship without warning.
Mexican presidentialism cannot be reconstituted without the formal support of the United States, as in 1924, 1929, 1945, 1988, and 1994. The United States must take charge of its own backyard and abandon the idea of corrupt homeostasis. Federalism has turned Mexico into a failed state that will soon infect the United States and that, whether Donald Trump likes it or not, will have to subsidize with greater resources later; better to pay now than double or triple later; even the American public will have to consider Friedman's exponential 2080 in those payments.
North America should have understood that Mexico is its historical stepson, its disobedient son; But if he doesn't control it now, like Nero's mother and guardians, he will end up consumed by his irresponsible actions.
