Mexamérica without Trumpism
Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero
Can Mexico live apart from the United States in a more multipolar world? Economic and social evidence indicates that the answer is no, at least not in the short or medium term without facing a major crisis.
Although the international system is evolving toward greater competition among powers and China has increased its economic and geopolitical influence, Mexico maintains a level of integration with the United States that is unparalleled with any other country.
Talking about a separation between the two does not simply mean replacing a trading partner, but rather transforming an economic model built over more than three decades.
Trade dependence is the first indicator.
Around 83% of Mexican exports are destined for the U.S. market, while China represents only about 2% of national exports.
This means that if preferential access to the U.S. market were to disappear, Mexico would have to find buyers for hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of manufactured goods, a task impossible to accomplish in just a few years.
No economy, not even China or the BRICS countries, currently has the capacity to absorb that volume of Mexican exports.
However, the relationship goes far beyond trade.
Mexican industry is part of a single North American production platform.
Sectors such as automotive, aerospace, electronics, and machinery operate through supply chains that cross the border multiple times before a finished product is completed.
A car assembled in Mexico may incorporate engines manufactured in the United States, electronic components from Asia, and parts produced in Canada.
This integration allows for reduced costs and increased competitiveness compared to other regions of the world.
Breaking these chains would mean rebuilding suppliers, infrastructure, and industrial processes that have taken decades to consolidate.
Foreign investment confirms this dependence.
Approximately 39% of all foreign direct investment received by Mexico comes from the United States.
Including Canada, North America represents practically half of the productive investment that comes to the country.
This is not just about financial capital; This investment also incorporates technology, patents, training, innovation, and access to international markets.
Replacing these flows would require other economies to be willing to invest with the same intensity and stability, something that is not currently the case.
In the social sphere, remittances represent another fundamental component.
Millions of Mexican families depend on money sent by workers who reside primarily in the United States.
Although remittances are not the main source of gross domestic product, they do sustain consumption and the local economy in numerous municipalities and states.
A significant reduction in these flows would have immediate effects on employment, regional trade, and poverty levels.
Energy security also demonstrates this close interdependence.
Mexico imports large quantities of natural gas, gasoline, diesel, and other fuels from the United States.
Much of the electricity used by Mexican industry depends indirectly on this energy supply.
An abrupt interruption would raise production costs, fuel inflation, and reduce the competitiveness of the national economy.
The phenomenon of migration and drug trafficking demonstrate that the bilateral relationship cannot be understood solely through the lens of trade.
Migration acts as an economic engine, generating employment for millions of Mexicans and producing remittances, while the U.S. market is the primary destination for drug trafficking organizations.
This shows that both countries share structural problems whose solution requires cooperation, regardless of any existing political differences.
In this context, China has significantly increased its commercial presence in Mexico.
The Asian country supplies machinery, electronic equipment, industrial inputs, and consumer goods, but purchases relatively few Mexican products.
This results in a profoundly unbalanced trade relationship.
Although China represents a world-class manufacturing power and an increasingly influential player, it is not yet a viable alternative to the economic integration that Mexico maintains with the United States.
All of this is happening while the international system is transitioning toward a more multipolar order.
It is possible that the United States will face a relative decline. The United States may face a relative decline compared to the dominance it exercised after the Cold War, but this does not signify a collapse of its economic or technological capabilities.
Likewise, China’s growing prominence does not automatically imply absolute dominance over the international system.
Both countries will continue to compete for global influence, while mid-sized economies will seek to maintain relations with both blocs.
Mexico cannot exist apart from the United States without incurring extraordinarily high economic and social costs.
Interdependence regarding trade, industry, finance, energy, and migration means that both countries are part of the same economic ecosystem.
The real challenge for Mexico lies not in replacing the United States with China or another power, but in gradually diversifying its markets, strengthening its technological capabilities, boosting productivity, and reducing vulnerabilities—all without severing the integration that currently serves as the primary engine of its economy.
