Safety or Show? The strongest letter for CDMX

 Safety or Show? The strongest letter for CDMX

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Omar García Harfusch and Cuauhtémoc Blanco constitute some of the best-weighted elements in terms of politicians close to Lopezobradorism. The 2021 elections made it clear that the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico constitutes a space with strong disputes and electoral realignment for the PAN and MORENA. An erroneous candidate for CDMX by Morena not only implies increasing the possibilities of a long-awaited alternation. In 2021, many analysts consider that there is a punishing vote for the left in the country's capital and that it tends to increase. The defeat of MORENA in CDMX puts the presidential succession of the Fourth Transformation at risk.

García Harfusch's inclusion in Lopezobradorismo has been highly questioned due to his links with the secret police of the PRI regime as well as his participation in the repressive governments of Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto; However, this element that signifies him as someone defective and strange in the Fourth Transformation has also been strategic for the fight against crime, which constitutes one of the main problems in the governability of the center of the country. An intelligently designed platform regarding effective ways to confront crime can position you against the blue and white candidates and other outsider characters who seek to take over the government of the main entity in Mexico.

Cuauhtémoc Blanco is synonymous with efficiency. How many millions of Americanists are there in CDMX? While it is true that the government and public administration capacity of the former soccer player and former national team leaves much to be desired, the vote influenced by the charisma and sports leadership of the character in question leaves no room for doubt. White is synonymous with votes, sympathy, influence and loyalties; There is the power achieved by the evangelical and Pentecostal party that governs Morelos. It was fortunate for some that Cuauhtémoc Blanco did not run for the presidency of the republic under the banner of the soccer World Cup. From which they were saved!

Morena and Claudia Sheinbaum have a more than complicated challenge in CDMX, the consequence of their decisions affects the continuity of the Fourth Transformation and Lopezobradorismo. The electoral geography becomes more competitive as 2024 approaches and the ties of political groups begin to alter.

American political successions and Russian interventionism

 American political successions and Russian interventionism

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

NATO prepares the war against Russia in an accelerated and constant way, it does not intend a short-term negotiation in the Ukrainian conflict; on the contrary, the massive shipment of arms advances pessimistic scenarios.

Beyond the yearning for peace called for by citizens from all over the world, neither geopolitics nor neoliberal businesses stop. An inexplicable Russophobia is socialized, the Western world is not capable of assuming self-critical positions. The war machine has been set in motion and any pause generates millions in losses for the speculations of the pentagonist military complex.

The death of the main representative of the Wagner Group is shown as a sign of authoritarianism in Russia; however, the risks of authoritarianism affect all of humanity. The authoritarianism of US imperialism even affects its own population.

The incident involving the apparent leaders of the Wagner Group shows that the Cold War has turned into a Hybrid War that goes beyond international law, multilateral organizations and the State. Nothing has changed in the treatment of the empires that fight for world control, the Cold War only constitutes the closest antecedent.

All in all, Vladimir Putin's power is stabilizing in the face of various attacks from the West. Russia is defending its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The BRICS seek to democratize neoliberal globalization. The United States opposes everything.

There is a turning point that benefits Russia in the geopolitical game of the world board, the turn corresponds to them now in view of the upcoming presidential elections in Mexico and the United States. Presidential elections are moments of weakness, blind spots in the conduct of political systems. The 2024 elections in Mexico and the United States, as well as in other countries on the continent, open flanks in national security.

Political polarization and electoral competitiveness are difficult moments for a failed or consolidated democracy. America knows about Russian interventionism in the presidential elections, knows how it affects. Will it happen again? Can it happen in Mexico? Is Mexico the Ukraine of the United States? Does it make sense for the United States to destabilize the Mexican elections? North American interventionism in the Mexican elections opens the doors wide for groups interested in complicating their living space. Why bring the Ukrainian war to the Rio Grande?

The Presidential Succession in Mexico

 The Presidential Succession in Mexico

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

The presentation of the book "Four Bottle Caps and a Bottle Opener" (CEEPS), whose authors are Carlos Ramírez, Alejandro Ramos and Jesús Sánchez, took place on the island of the BUAP Bookstore of the CCU. The presentation was given by Dr. César Cansino and Dr. Humberto Morales, having as moderator Dr. Omar Gallardo.

The historian Humberto Morales pointed out the importance of analyzing the presidential succession of Mexico as a result of the events of the last century. He recommended the need to carry out studies of Networks and Prosopography of the political and economic elites to transcend the description of the power blocks and groups. The work in question was commented as one of the pioneering studies on the internal process of MORENA and highlighted the biography of the main candidates to lead the Committees for the Defense of the Fourth Transformation: Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, Ricardo Monreal and Adán Augusto López. He pointed out that Manuel Velasco and other options from the Morenista bloc should be taken into account to have an overview of the process. In analogy with other studies that observe the succession situation, he highlighted the archaeological analysis of covertism, dedazo and PRI culture of power that the text covers. The book will be indispensable in next year's political science and electoral analysis. In the absence of a Nationalist Bourgeoisie, the division of the economic elite predominates, however -says Humberto Morales- the most powerful economic coalition in the country is with AMLO and the traditional oligarchic groups, above all the business elites connected with the PAN right accompany to the Broad Front.

César Cansino reviewed the latest presidential successions, emphasizing that presidents have not been able to openly impose a person. That is, it is always necessary to negotiate with other factors of power. In the same way, he was deeply dismayed by the internal process of the FAM and pointed out that therein lies the old PRI regime due to the vulgar way in which the national leader of the PRI discriminated against a candidate like Beatriz Paredes. It will be the first time that the PRI does not have a candidate for the presidency of the republic. I consider the experience of the Ballotage in other Latin American nations important to counteract the caudillista abuse.

Carlos Ramírez made a broad review of the successions in Mexico until Salinismo and shared details of some occasions in which the president could not completely impose a good successor. He reflected on the permanence of Tapadism in the Mexican political system -at the national and local level- as well as the propaganda use of polls. He highlights the importance of Francisco I. Madero as well as José Revueltas in the configuration of his analytical perspective and that there is a profound absence of characters in the political contest who are firm believers and knowledgeable about the Rule of Law. The author expressed the importance of the constitutional order for democratic consolidation and the way in which this factor represents a debt in the process of Mexican political change. Carlos Ramírez stated that most of the political appointments have been disappointing, he shared countless anecdotes regarding how the presidents regretted the person named as successor. However, he considered that it is healthy that the country invents itself every six years and that this rule regulates authoritarian leadership in Mexico.

The text is available to readers at the BUAP Bookstore and in an electronic version. A work that is important in the final stretch of the six-year term.

Would Vladimir Putin support Eduardo Verástegui?

 Would Vladimir Putin support Eduardo Verástegui?

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

During the electoral process that allowed Donald Trump to reach the presidency of the United States, the intervention of Russia in favor of the candidate of the Republican party has been demonstrated. Now that Trumpism and republicanism are rising again, with great strength, in the US electoral process for 2024, the concern regarding Vladimir Putin appears again; and even more so because of the war that NATO is waging with Russia.

In Mexico, the figure of Eduardo Verástegui has grown, there is a disproportionate correspondence between his cause and Trumpist republicanism. But, in addition to sticking to the most extreme Yankee conservatism, Verástegui also accompanies a religious traditionalism that is proving fundamental in the political configuration of the post-covid world. In other words, in the face of the crisis of liberal capitalist democracy represented in neo-extractivist neoliberalism, nationalisms and populisms in various forms make their appearance: leftist, rightist, progressive, ethnic and religious. Samuel Huntington had established that the great protagonist of the clash of civilizations was indigenism, or nativism as the politically correct social scientists want to call it.

Vladimir Putin is the icon of a civilizing resistance against globalist democracy. Beyond justifying or understanding his reasons, the truth is that Putin is the protagonist of the neoliberal American decline. Day by day a struggle takes place where the Russian advance is interpreted as a retreat from the imperialist Western hegemony.

That is why American liberalism is concerned about the growth and leadership of Donald Trump. The Republicans have assumed the historical criticism of North American society towards voracious transnational capitalism, the imperialist farce and social decline. With everything and the racist, aporophobic, quasi-fascist excesses of Trumpism; What is certain is that the accusations and criticisms of the state of affairs in the American Union cannot be ignored. The United States has neglected its own people, as Samuel Huntington and many critical American sociologists once considered progressive have said.

Some consider that Trumpism seeks to meet again with Putinism to end a useless war that brings the end of Western culture closer. As at the time other Republicans interacted with China to balance the Cold War, now it is up to Russia to help –seriously- to balance the geopolitical power of the sleeping Asian giant.

And if all this worries Trumpism in North America, what would happen to Eduardo Verástegui, who is the most Trumpist candidate in Mexico? Will there be in Verástegui's team Russian spies and financial support from the famous Moscow gold? Would there be an understanding between Hispanic Catholic nationalism and orthodox Christian nationalism? Would Verástegui, Vox and Trump be more in line with a Putinist government in their respective regions than with a neoliberal lifestyle? Would Verástegui support a Mexit as proposed by Donald Trump for the health of both nations?

An extremist of Mexican conservatism, a member of the PAN, stated that the Mexican government should contract the Wagner Group to combat drug trafficking in the country since neither SEDENA nor the US intelligence apparatus can do anything. In this argument it can be represented that the Mexican right has stopped demonizing Russia, the same Vox Español recognizes the merit of the policies of internal capitalism that Vladimir Putin generates. Even the Catholic Church has made Russia sacred during the pandemic.

The "friendly" Russia for the Mexican far-right -through Trumpism- constitutes one of the most interesting episodes of the geopolitical secret war that Mexico has always lived through, as analyzed by Friederich Katz. There are several elements to glimpse a competitive strengthening of Eduardo Verástegui towards the 2024 elections.

The exhaustion of the party system and a sterile polarization inasmuch as it has to do with the lack of political proposals of the Broad Front and the absence of an ideological narrative in the Fourth Transformation given the legislative and judicial blockade, open the door to an independent and pro-American candidate. like Eduardo Verastegui. Even his political project can be compared to the case of Emmanuel Macron.

The rise of Donald Trump in US politics could benefit Eduardo Verástegui and bring about a third party in contention for next year's interesting electoral process.

Even floor. The difficult construction of internal democracy in political parties

 Even floor. The difficult construction of internal democracy in political parties

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

During the last days the problem of the methods for the designation of candidates in the electoral coalitions and political movements of Mexico persists. The disagreement with the rules of internal competition and its interpretation makes it clear that the appointment of candidates motivates the defense of political rights, turncoatism and political entrepreneurship in Mexico and Latin America.

These phenomena are linked to a disease of political institutes and party systems that seems to find no solution. Will we reach a scenario, similar to the French one, in which we see people who are far from partisan alignments govern? Perhaps this happens in Latin America and explains the lack of institutionality in our political systems.

Given the natural partisan factionalism, as well as the discontent of some leaders, it has become a common currency for rulers and public representatives to decide to found new political parties. This situation, already widespread, means that -as in the French case- political systems have as many parties as wines and cheeses has the French country. Multipartism -more nominal than real-, in any case, generates problems for governance and the production of public policies with a high social impact.

Just as it is impossible to affirm conclusively that the parties are oligarchies and that each character must understand where they are getting into; it is absurd to conceive them under the model of Plato's Academy. Internal democracy counts; if not, why propose rules of participation? "For PRI members, better PRI members," said Granados Chapa and, up to now, observing their behavior, it seems that PRI members of all parties continue to govern us.

In Mexico, political parties do not end up consolidating. 2018 meant a hurricane that swept away the flimsy institutionality they had left. Years later and even with the vast experience of their leaders, they have not yet developed an institutional design capable of regulating organizational mechanisms, formation of militants, aggregation of interests and construction of a government plan.

Visceral factionalism in Latin America forces us to think seriously about the Sartorian proposals for the Second Round of elections or about semi-presidential mechanisms that reduce the negative influence of particularisms. The divisions do not benefit anyone, much less the country. Mexico's main concern has been national unity, and the internal life of the parties demonstrates the distance we keep from a community project.

In this failure, the most frustrating role has been that of electoral institutions, which underutilized huge budgets to develop civic political culture and make democratic principles the only way to make decisions. Everyone ended up agreeing with the president, but no one recognizes him.

The democratic rules generate that uncertainty typical of those who participate, knowing that they meet the requirements, respect the guidelines, compete and hope that their talents will produce a result. Without clear and functional competition mechanisms, the internal life of the parties generates gangrene and poisons the organization and the country.

Ebrard adheres to social liberalism

 Ebrard adheres to social liberalism

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

The video presentation entitled "El Camino de México" that seeks to promote Marcelo Ebrard's career as a public figure, actually shows the distance that the former Mexican foreign minister has from the principles that distinguish the government of the Fourth Transformation. The material seems to be aimed at an electoral sector that seeks the economic integration of Mexico with the United States, the promotion of capitalism and the development of technological modernization in the areas of government security and education. It explains little about any social work that the former Head of Government of CDMX has carried out, even the issue of public transport that could have been useful, was not taken into consideration -for example, the issue of the Metro-.

Since his incorporation into the technocratic team of Manuel Camacho Solís, Ebrard Casaubón appreciated politics as a managerial bureaucrat. That is to say, keeping due proportions in what is called Enlightened Despotism, Ebrard like Camacho, develop a strategic thinking of the government moving away from the influence that society has. Camacho opted for the integration of a compact group that would take over the main areas of the government and that would become essential to remove the direction and control of empirical politicians; what finally happened. Ebrard continues to be technotronic, now digital and cybernetic, trusting that artificial intelligence can replace empiricism even in relations with Yankee imperialism.

Marcelo forgets the lesson of politics, as Jesús Reyes Heroles said, it happens with many. The technocrat says how, but the politician says when. Both things are essential in a society like Mexico, a nation severely confronted between the republic of catrines and the republic of outcasts. Camacho Solís was the architect of an elite that seized power from power and sought transformation from within the system. Ebrard, as happened with Camacho, was expelled from the technocratic group and forced to engage in politics, to seek survival among the empiricists, and they did not do so badly.

Ebrard, like other candidates, should reflect on the political capacity that they have developed in these times and that has positioned them in the most competitive spaces to achieve the presidency of the republic. Márquez's Why did Camacho lose? should also be a bedside book for Ebrard Casaubón; Beyond getting closer to the cliques of the political group in power and the national oligarchy, it is also important to get closer to the masses, the formal attachment to the popular sectors and the serious construction of public policies for a people that has enormous social gaps .

Armenta: Fallen Soldier?

 Armenta Fallen Soldier?

Diego Martin Velazquez Caballero

There has been speculation regarding the interest of the oligarchic groups in the entity to sabotage Alejandro Armenta, in the same way that they did - and do - with Mario Marín.

The competition for the morenista candidacy for the government of the state of Puebla has generated ups and downs in the profile of the applicants. A singular case in recent times has been that of Senator Alejandro Armenta: he went from considering himself Incitatus to the center of marine polemics.

Indeed, the coverage and sponsorship of a political clique is not always the best letter of introduction in political contexts such as those that Puebla has experienced.

There has been speculation regarding the interest of the oligarchic groups in the entity to sabotage Alejandro Armenta, in the same way that they did - and do - with Mario Marín.

Puebla's political elites distinguish between the officers, the troops and the Indians -according to their own speech- and Armenta is a soldier, so he was not going to pass.

As in the marine scandal, the main responsible parties were not affected in any way, only the bureaucracy and middle managers.

The internal competition in Morena to designate the candidate who, most likely, has the greatest support of the electorate is still distant.

The situation of Senator Alejandro Armenta has forced him to purge his team of collaborators, listen to the environment of social demands and seriously propose a government project for Puebla committed to the Fourth Transformation.

It's the right thing to do, even from a turncoat perspective; people who abandon a political cause do so to reinvent themselves in another, to be someone different, not to disguise the usual hindrances and ghosts, change is a rupture or it is not change.

The Alejandro Armenta who faced morenovallismo and made the feat of facing it alone, probably constitutes the political asset that transforms the environment in his work team from a vicious circle to a virtuous circle.

In any case, the elites and the godfathers always know how to accommodate themselves to the rising sun, they never lose because they don't fight with their money.

The invisible power that turned marines into a plague constitutes the sphere from which Alejandro Armenta must guard.

In an instant the negative capacity of this force causes structural damage

Did they betray Armenta to benefit another Morenista aspirant? What awaits Morena in Puebla if he is kidnapped by these powers that be?