Amlo: The Next Santa Anna?

 Amlo: The Next Santa Anna?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Compared to the United States, most Mexican presidents have been surrenderists. It could not be otherwise, nuclear diplomacy and internal factionalism establish a scenario where tribal survival is the highest priority. As a tributary state of North America, Mexico must pay its quota or floor right and sacrifice what is necessary. Each Mexican president establishes a governance agreement where he accepts the balance between American demands and the internal demands of interest groups. Some Heads of State in the country have preferred to hand over remote control to the United States, others try to do a little with the little power that the Yankee empire allows. The idea of ​​the powerful president who can do almost anything is just a myth given the Mexican neighborhood.

According to the perspective generated by Fernando Escalante Gonzalbo and Roger Bartra, the post-pandemic and economic recovery processes are generating severe crisis scenarios for North America where emigration, organized crime and social problems make the insecurity of the United States polysemic and only the invasion remains. to Mexico to inhibit the gigantic accumulation of immigration from Latin America and particularly from our country. According to the rhetoric of the Republican Party - and the Mexican red circle - the issue of emigration and social conflicts in Latin America attack the neighborhood with the United States, mass emigrations seem to be proposing a replacement of the Anglo-Saxon population. Where is Mexican and Latin American emigration headed? To take North America. And the externalities that this situation causes can cause the disintegration of the American Union. The idea of ​​open doors that American society had had to emigration seems to be running out in the event that electoral support is directed to Donald Trump. For this reason, an invasion of Mexico is taking shape and, apparently, the government of the Fourth Transformation seems to be identifying with this situation because it is incompetent to remedy the problem.

The scenario of the War against Drug Trafficking deeply weakens the Mexican State and its Army. The blurring of national sovereignty in the face of organized crime leaves the free will of the United States to establish a cordon sanitaire to protect them. And, according to the rhetoric of American Republicans, the decision – although reckless – will not take long to be carried out.

From this point of view, the development that López Obrador is proposing in the South of Mexico has no other objective than to hand over the North of the country to the United States. The national security crisis that Mexico has in the face of drug trafficking determines that the United States takes control of the civilizational limits that José Vasconcelos proposed for the Mexican Republic. The territorial points that are contemplated to be co-opted by North America are strategic for the Maquiladora Industry, Assembly Plants and Development Zones where immigration can be stopped and the fight against drug trafficking can operate. The Mexican south is changing in its infrastructure and metropolitan area; But, now, the evils that influenced Mexican misgovernance are also migrating to this region, particularly drug trafficking, as well as the patrimonial bureaucracy and neo-extractivism that represents capitalism by distinctive dispossession of the Latin American oligarchies. Chiapas is a serious example, although other entities such as Puebla are not far behind.

Apparently, as in 1847, the president of Mexico has been a collaborator of the geopolitical strategy of the American Union. General Santa Anna shared significant information regarding access routes for the invasion, collateral damage, weak points, fortifications to take and all the information necessary so that, in a short period, the Americans could settle in the republic for almost a year. Even Santa Anna carried out a purchase and sale transaction. It should be noted that the Catholic Church also proposed the annexation of Mexico to the Yankee Empire.

For the red circle that seeks to deepen North American intervention, Mexico will be split if the Fourth Transformation continues for more than two periods. Nearshoring and the uncontrolled dynamics that the interaction between Mexico and North America has taken will lead to the North and West of our country being grafted to the American Union; However, in 2024 the vote for Morena was the majority in most of the northern states.

The perceived threat of Mexican ungovernability calls for AMLO to collaborate with the United States to avoid major problems. The United States manifests the true dynamic of protectionism towards Mexico, but the limits have reached the extreme.

The Pact for Mexico, one more Santanista act, ended up developing the harmful effects of neoliberalism, nor was the country modernized and the policies to close the economic and social gap were not implemented. Now, everything has become complicated. Drug trafficking is the most radical, savage and totalitarian de facto power; Mexico can no longer face it without dragging the United States into disaster.

North America faces the scenario of managing the situation of its imperial decline and economic crisis in the best possible way. She needs Mexican slavery and has the capacity to militarize the territories that her industry requires more than effectively. The border states in northern Mexico have left their nationalism as an increasingly distant echo; the economic and social reality represents a de facto integration.

Mexican nationalism is dependent on the United States, therefore, the degree of colonialism is not only reflected in the historical flirtation of the elites but also of society. Mexican emigration to the American Union has been more than a diaspora in the second half of the 20th century; However, even with a population greater than a whopping 50 million compatriots in Anglo-Saxon land, Mexico could not take over the United States; the opposite is logical. The Mexican economic dependence on North America signed since the Treaties of Guadalupe Hidalgo and reaffirmed with the Treaties of Bucareli, NAFTA and TMEC, which imply not opposing any resistance to North American interventionism.

The economic policies of the fourth transformation do not make progress in closing the difference between Mexico and the United States. The Huntington and Fukuyama gap extends, like the McLane-Ocampo Treaties, to the City of Palaces.

Trump and the pro-American right

Trump and the pro-American right

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero 

The campaign for the presidency of the United States reactivates different tendencies of Trumpist groups in Mexico.

Republican Mexico, Eduardo Verástegui and a minimal PAN faction - separately - begin activism that seeks to generate sympathies towards the accused former North American president.

The meaning that the radical right takes on in our country depends on the future that Trumpism develops in North America.

The prospect of restoring integral and intransigent conservatism in Rome influences the former collaborators of North American anti-communism to recover lost islands of power in the face of populist progressivism.

The power of Marcial Maciel's followers, former phil-Nazi groups from Guadalajara and various national oligarchs, are eagerly awaiting the triumph of Donald Trump to regain power in the Vatican and position themselves in the power structure in Mexico.

The radical right in Mexico has not been shaped by the marginalization that the Hispanic right makes of the pro-US right.

However, once the PAN has been torn apart by adverse electoral results and ideological confusion, the space of the radical right appears as an ontological necessity in the country's partisan spectrum.

The idea that the opposition is non-existent after the electoral tsunami of 35 million votes only leaves room for radical and extremist movements.

Donald Trump's campaign for the presidency of the United States will also be an invitation to critics of the Fourth Transformation and, especially, to the enemies of left-wing progressivism.

Given that conservatism has a wide range of influence in national political culture, including Morena comprising various right-wing groups collaborating in its humanist coalition, now the possibility of a far-right party - even in satellite status - is not only an option alternative electoral, but it can also contribute to dissolving North American pressure.

Movimiento Viva México, México Republicano, Nueva Derecha Hispanoamericana, VOX, etc., represent the facades of probable electoral institutes that intend to join the crest of the conservative wave that is beginning to gain strength in Europe and North America.

Investment in North American lobbying

 Investment in North American lobbying

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Now that the heat of the US campaigns for the presidency of the American Union begins, Mexico will be a constant in the attacks launched by the candidates of the main political parties. Jorge Shabat held the idea that, since Calderonism, the Mexican government has forgotten the important role played by the mediators and intermediaries of the US political system and the effects on the image of a country in the eyes of North American public opinion. The war against drugs, the deep level of corruption and progressive populism are not the best letters of introduction in the face of a gringo electoral climate that demands Mexican blood to atone for the errors of its geopolitics. Mexico becomes the ugly mirror of Chinese, Russian and terrorist power.

A few days ago, during an academic event that invited the participation of Guadalupe Correa and Osvaldo Zavala, the analysis of drug trafficking in Mexico also exposed the consequences on North American public opinion and, above all, on political campaigns. The enormous symbolic power of Mexican folklore and gastronomy is being dangerously contaminated by drug trafficking, as has happened with music, religion and television dramas, to generate absolute stereotypes that harm the Mexican image in the eyes of the common North American citizen. In electoral periods, this translates into the selection of politicians who protect North American society from the danger of Mexican drug trafficking through whatever means are necessary. Although it is proven in Mexico that fentanyl is not produced and that drug cartels do not exist, the North American social perception is different and the Mexican government does little to defend itself there.

Due to the dynamics of national presidential centralism, the role of the legislative branch in the presidentialism of the United States is forgotten. Beyond the fact that Joe Biden or Donald Trump are increasingly similar, the risk lies in the fact that hundreds of anti-Mexican legislators can achieve seats through any party. For this reason, lobbying in the Congress of the American Union and local legislative powers is essential. Some studies in this regard demonstrate that the greater the investment in American lobbyists, the positive effects on investment, image and foreign policy multiply. Even in governments like those of Salinas and Fox, the beneficial effects of lobbying go so far as to propose policies that openly promote North American integration for Mexico. Unlike other governments and companies, it has been the Mexican rulers and the national political class who have abandoned the alternative.

Changing the perception of the American citizen regarding what is happening in Mexico is essential for our country that depends on North America. The masses to prevent Donald Trump from winning are useless in this sense, as are the speeches of social justice and the presumption of qualified majorities that, in truth, have the opposite effect. The little Russian boats don't help much either.

Post-electoral judicialization, a possibility?

 Post-electoral judicialization, a possibility?

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Although the most radicalized sectors of the PRIANRD consider that the true electoral processes will begin with the judicialization of the political process starting on June 3; The truth is that this situation depends on the electoral margin between the strongest options and the accidents on election day.

Contrary to the arguments of this trend, fortunately the electoral process has remained in a perspective characteristic of the political evolution of Mexico. However, the negative typologies of this process that closes next week have not been more serious than other presidential successions. This is good news for the ailing, imperfect democracy in our republic. The accusations that are now leveled against López Obrador were also previously implemented by neoliberals and, perhaps, with greater crudeness.

In any case, the ideal that the election day on June 2nd takes place calmly and in order contributes to the benefit of everyone. And, according to the surveys themselves, with everything and their divergences, everyone will get something. The country is not going to be lost after June 2nd. The authoritarian drift of the failed Mexican democracy did not begin in 2018. It should be noted that authoritarianism is particular to the entire political class in our country.

The fourth transformation cannot expose its performance with the implementation of electoral fraud. The results must be assumed mainly by the government and, with this, demonstrate that the democratic vocation, even in populist progressivism, is a latent reality. AMLO, whether he wants it or not, is unable to transcend the next six-year term. Violating the elections is a historical error of the most serious responsibility for the Fourth Transformation.

Mexican society, with so many irresolvable cleavages, does not seem to conform to an electorate that delivers absolute majorities in democratic contexts, which are still incipient. The many Mexicans demand inclusive and plural governments.

Electoral judicialization constitutes a scenario far from reality; there are few local cases where the electoral margin is narrow. Suddenly, the caution of the result and defense of the vote encourage fantastic fears. But, in most cases, Morena's advantage seems to be wide and with convincing scenarios of victory. For this reason, the ruling party should not expose itself to implementing fraud and situations conducive to electoral judicialization if the mathematical advantages are on its side.

The contentious electoral dimension constitutes an area of guarantee for democratic legality; However, in Mexico it has served to keep resentments and useless factionalism alive. An electoral process that does not give rise to protests contributes to the governability of Mexico.

The axis of the Puebla political debate

 The axis of the Puebla political debate

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

For some Morena Marxists, the caciquil chapulinism represented in the imposition of candidates is preferable to the right's advancement; the conservative groups are more dangerous than the caciquil fiefdoms for the Fourth Transformation to achieve its second floor. Be?

The neoliberal project, Foxism and Peñanietism tried to come to an agreement with the caciquil fiefdoms and that was how they succeeded. Manuel Camacho Solís, although he accused an excess of pragmatism in the national political class, had a practical perspective based on the experience of revolutionary nationalists in Asia; but, after the Salinist failure, he resumed it with moderation and ended up defending the pacts - at a disadvantage - with the traditional fiefdoms to balance different groups, cliques and leaders. His political strategy, both combative and centrist, was a total failure. The compact group that was imposed on the fiefdoms through the surprise strategy did not work, nor does change without rupture work.

True revolutionary transformation cannot be deceived. Constitutionalism, for example, could not take control of the country until the revolutionary Thermidor was finished. Only after the extreme radicalization of the Carrancista Grupo Sonora, the regime of the Mexican revolution was able to build institutions such as the Party, Presidentialism and Revolutionary Family that would channel the State and social justice. After its exhaustion, the Mexican political system has been intervened and at the full disposal of the United States and any other imperialism.

During the time of the Hegemonic Party, the PRI included the caciques, although it energized their circulation through a healthy political alternation and demobilization; The PRI was a caciquil, although it destroyed and controlled the caciques of many regions. The Great Chief was the president, but even the head of the Executive Branch had limited power: the six-year term. And there was no divine faculty that generated transexenality.

This was the circularity of the elites and the collaborative factionalism of the PRI until the exhaustion of the political project, as well as the social fabric. The inability of the political system to regenerate caused the chiefs and their factions to weaken the party and society. Neoliberalism and democracy were not consolidated because they lacked the strength to regulate and control chiefdom, fiefdoms and invisible power. Will the fourth transformation be the final chapter of this long transition via competitive elections?

Preferring fiefdoms to authentic disputes with the right is nothing other than rejecting the impulse for transformation and preferring gatopardismo to perpetuate the patrimonialism of Hispanic Feudalism, the Habsburg Model. What does it mean to agree with the fiefdoms? Dosage the poison of quietism, fill with the aroma of flowers in the poison of conservatism. Doesn't university Marxism have the intellectual preparation to realize that the caciques are extremely conservative?

Now, the fiefdoms represent the drug trafficking of the main global kingpin: NarcoAmérica.

Mexico became a State in Crisis since the arrival of neoliberalism and has reached the extreme. If the Fourth Transformation does not decide to promote institutional values, it will lead to the maximum risk of collapse of the political system.

Caciquismo has been the great hindrance of Ibero-American culture, the caciques are the ayatollahs of the anti-modern black revolution. They do not represent anything, neither regions, nor classes, nor identities, they are abusive and criminal personalist leaders.

The caciques were the first line of struggle that Falangism and Pinochetism had, they are the cracks and embers of fascism. They have the strength to generate civil animosity, a regional war, thanks to their clientelism and form of autonomous regional dominance. Salvador Allende was overthrown because the expectation of a successful socialist government could have radiated to the southern cone and generated a Latin American chain effect. The Pinochet dictatorship was a wedge to divide the region and weaken communist influence. In the end they got it. In any case, the left was displaced and destroyed. The left is denied in North American geopolitics, it is only a matter of time to exclude it from the political system.

The caciques are evidence of that empiricism that Manuel Camacho Solís questioned and that was causing so much damage in the country. The fiefdoms, like pillars of salt, seek to freeze time and the society they have hijacked. They represent the foundations of the most primitive authoritarianism. Supporting the Fourth Transformation in the chiefs is condemning the country to backwardness and the barbaric structure of slavery, vassalage and servitude. The alliance with the fiefdoms benefits the traditional right, which does not want time to move forward either.

Morena and her caciquil alliance have this perspective of suspending Mexican time, once again, weakening state institutionalization and centralization for the benefit of the caciques through the great electoral exchange. Again, we will be late to the story. The only thing that is institutionalized is patrimonial corruption.

The chiefs are the promoters of black revolutions to maintain the permanent backwardness of imperialist colonialism. Thus North American geopolitics is imposed on us anyway.

Andrew Paxman, returning to some assumptions of the Camachista diagnosis, proposes the chiefdom as a historical knot that limits the democratic evolution of the Mexican political system; the conflict they cause can lead to social collapse as was about to occur during the Peñanietismo. Feudalism is the new term to define this reality that was established after the failed Calderonista war, the country was put in the hands of drug trafficking and there is no way out.

The political system that the neoliberals tried to found could never defeat the fiefdoms and, later, could never summon them to a national pact for the democratic transition. In the end, the big losers were the technocrats and neoliberals. They never had the legitimizing capacity of capitalist liberal democracy and, little by little, they lost American support. The only element that controls the fiefdoms in the Mexican political system is the United States and it will continue that way.

The Fiefs expire again and system modernization comes to a prolonged halt. The Mexican political system will hardly move towards a socialist dimension, nor is prolonged party dominance in sight as in the time of the PRI. However, the fiefdoms are going to transmit power through a pragmatic canovism.

During the interventions of the candidates for the governorship of Puebla: Eduardo Rivera, for the Prianrd; Alejandro Armenta, for Morena and Fernando Morales, for Movimiento Ciudadano; All the candidates were reviled for their ties to Marinism. However, the expression is closer to the Morena candidate since, since the strange triumph of Miguel Barbosa, the Marinista operators were important for the movement of electoral structures.

According to the narrative of democratic transitions, it is not normal for Marinismo to have the possibility of resurfacing and reaching power; However, in spaces where political fiefdoms dominate municipal power and public administration, they control the succession. From this it is understood that groups that promoted Morenovallismo are found as collaborators of the second floor of the Marinista movement.

There is no political clique that achieves power unequivocally in the Puebla entity. Before the political alternation that brought the PAN to the state governorship, in reality the PRI and its cliques controlled power, as they continue to do now.

There is a shift from local power groups towards the National Regeneration Movement, from the fiefdoms that have distinguished the historical trajectory in Puebla. Traditional groups, fiefdoms, nodes and chiefdoms, execute collaborative factionalism to retain control of the entity. Those groups or characters that do not agree with them are not included in the rotation by the public administration.

Marinismo, in its first stage, decided to rely on Chiapas groups, Lebanese oligarchies and their personal clique to achieve national power. He did not achieve his goal, because traditional groups sabotaged his project. Launching a program without considering local factions received the corresponding sanction and, thanks to that, Morenovallismo was able to form. Later, this group exercised that exclusion of which Mario Marín was accused and the elimination of non-conformists and dissidents was even more aggressive.

The political traditionalism of the entity now maintains its balance through the candidacy of Alejandro Armenta; Local politicians have gathered around Morenoballism and Marinism appears as the first level of the next government, but there are elements of other cliques such as Morenovallism, Melquiadism, and regional chiefdoms.

Puebla is a fiefdom of local political groups and they act according to their convenience; Even the regional Catholic high clergy also supports Morenoist Armentism. The local right relied on barbarism, but was never able to get a common project off the ground because the traditional chiefdoms are strong and aggressive.

Puebla returns to a dynamic of patronage, vassalage, caciquismo and clientelism. Rafael Moreno Valle, an autocrat who exceeded power until the sultanate, understood that the entity could not remain in that backwardness because it increased poverty and underdevelopment exponentially; However, the reality of the decomposition of the Mexican neoliberal regime granted new opportunities to populist and traditional groups.

It is true that in Puebla the middle classes, particularly in the most developed cities of the entity, can balance the vote and dispense a complete burden for Morenoism through electoral rationality. However, the civic, social and urban movements of Puebla have not been able to break the caciquil dynamic of political realism. Even Morena capitulated most of its candidacies to achieve a supposed legislative majority that appears complicated.

The national regeneration movement also runs the risk of becoming extinct after this year's elections, the fiefdoms are weighing the formation of regional parties and the exercise of transfuguism to accommodate a reality where the power of the Mexican presidency remains weak and the regions hijack governance. The capitulation of the Morenoist candidates is a sign of the weakness of momentum that the Fourth Transformation had from the beginning.

Brugada and Taboada divide CDMX

 Brugada and Taboada divide CDMX

Diego Martín Velázquez Caballero

Although the last Chilango debate was better divided between Clara Brugada and Santiago Taboada, demographic trends continue to show Mexico City as Morena's Achilles Heel. It is true that the Morenoist bases managed to stop the imposition of candidates outside the social base of the movement; as happened in many other places. However, the long time in power of the left and the errors in the exercise of government constitute heavy burdens that stop the concatenation of the different groups of the left, progressivism and collectivism that could support Brugada and Sheinbaum.

The 2021 electoral results have not been well studied by Clara Brugada. Although her political platform increasingly has better proposals, her vision of government is partial and, in the search for electoral mobilization, she forgets the inclusion of voters other than the traditional Morenoist profile.

President López Obrador has tried to polarize the progressive identity of CDMX, there is no doubt that the historical trends that confronted the authoritarian model of the Hegemonic Party and the rigidity of voracious neoliberalism. However, the country's capital has also become the headquarters of the most active groups against López Obradorism.

Clara Brugada's triumph depends on a full identification with the cosmopolitan progressivism of Mexico City. Social programs and welfare are important for a huge social sector based there; Although, it is also important to consider security for all social levels, education, transportation and mobility policies that a city of such proportion demands. CDMX is one of the most important population references on the planet and perhaps it is time to import some of the references of global governance. Water, pluralism, mobility, entertainment, work and progressivism no longer depend on a single party vision.

The electoral division that is sustained stands out and does not give any indication of advantage for anyone. The truth is that all sides must redouble their efforts and that election day will be of epic proportions for everyone, it is even stated that CDMX may have one of the highest participations in its electoral roll.

Fernando Morales and Free Verifications

 Fernando Morales and Free Verifications

DIEGO MARTIN VELÁZQUEZ CABALLERO

Although he has minimal possibilities to reach the governorship of Puebla (18%) and his family works with Morena, the truth is that Fer Morales has started with good steps due to some ideas that may be important in the policy agenda local public.

The idea of making ecological verifications of motorized transport free of charge has been visible and that fines are only charged for those who evade the process or do not have the mechanical regularization to pass this requirement.

Well observed, the idea is important in one of the states with the largest vehicle fleet in the metropolitan area surrounding Mexico City and where motorists have been criminalized since the arrival of morenovallismo.

One of the most ineffective agencies in Puebla is the Secretary of the Environment, Sustainable Development and Territorial Planning.

This agency is full of corruption and most of its staff is inefficient.

The situation of rivers, air, mountains, forests and, in general, the flora and fauna; It's terrible.

Moreno Valle distinguished himself by promoting neo-extractivism in a totalitarian way, but the Morena governments did nothing to change things.

The environment continues to be the picnic and camping for the golden bureaucracy.

Motorists will hardly vote for Alejandro Armenta and Morena, the alternation after morenovallismo has used the negative development of mobility policies, corruption and coercion towards car owners.

The disaster of poor air quality is proof that the environmental contingency does not concern the responsible officials, the state government did not change the mistreatment of drivers at all: photo fines, constant checkpoints, aggression by the police, disruption of vehicular traffic, etc

On the issue of ecological verifications, the permanent changes in verification technology as well as the manipulated concessions regarding them, suggest that the least important thing in Puebla is the environment and pollution.

Puebla is one of the most opaque states since Morenovallismo.

The environmental situation has been so manipulated that the pollution of the public administration in this regard is worse than global warming.

Thousands of motorists from Puebla come to park in Mexico City, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Morelos and Tlaxcala to avoid the corruption plot regarding vehicle verification.

The verification centers never finished functioning properly and the state administration does not synchronize the proportion between the verification centers, stages and vehicle population.

Fernando Morales makes simple, but intelligent and practical proposals regarding the subject. Vehicle verification must change in the entity and the state administration can do many things about it.

At another time, the mayor of Puebla Luis Paredes built a system of fines so that corruption in the traffic police decreased, the former governor of Aguascalientes Felipe González promoted the use of gas engines to replace polluting mechanisms and finance the improvement of the vehicle fleet.

There are good ideas, but they must be implemented.